The national election looms, like a tsunami of uncertainty. Right now it’s a prevailing source of anxiety, dread, hope and confusion. Predictions and polls are rampant and just add to the unrest. Understandably, many have tuned it all out. But as Greek statesman Pericles warned 2500 years ago, “Just because you do not take interest in politics doesn’t mean politics won’t take an interest in you.” And not just you, but the others among us, the most vulnerable and disadvantaged, that virtually every great teacher through history has hoped we will worry about too.
I’ve long given up on hoping that our nation’s elected leaders will “fix” our many problems to my or many Americans’ satisfaction. And for me the terms “conservative” or “liberal” or “progressive “ no longer hold real meaning. So I just hope and work for those who at least strive to lessen suffering among humans and even others on this beleaguered planet. I grew up in a very conservative family and area. My University of California degrees in biology, environmental issues, economics and public health are old and dusty but I have worked in these arenas for decades now and have seen how governmental action can help - or hurt - people’s lives. So I know voting matters, and offer these summary perspectives from the point of one who values factual reality, science, historical lessons, compassion and some form of solidarity above ideology or grievances. Take that as you might.
“Trump Derangement Syndrome”: No, TDS does not refer to the man’s questionable mental state, but to the term often used by MAGA devotees for those who see Donald Trump as a serious threat to the nation. It’s an ad hominem label used by those who cannot truly defend Trump on a factual basis. Ironically, when confronted by reality-based debunking of their pro-Trump assertions, Trump/MAGA people often become very angry or go silent; ironically, the tern “snowflake” they use for “libtards” all too often seems to apply to themselves. This is also a hallmark of cult mentality (more on that below). I think of TDS as “Truth Demanding Syndrome.” Some just can’t stand it, but it’s more needed than ever.
The Economy: ”Are you better off now than four years ago?” can be an effective slogan, since Reagan’s time at a minimum. However, Presidents have less direct impact on big economic trends than commonly thought, and the reality is that the US economy is extremely strong by most measurements right now. The conservative Economist magazine recently termed the US economy “the envy of the world,” citing employment rates, growth, rising markets, and more. But inflation and inequality persist and politicians get blamed, even though it is Big Business that sets the prices and practices hurting so many consumers. Trump seeks to further deregulate the corporate and financial world. And his plans are widely seen as very negative, even disastrous, by most economists and financial projections. Moodys Analytics, the leading nonpartisan financial group, predicts his plans would bring renewed inflation and even a recession. A long list of economists and Goldman Sachs agree; 23 Nobelist economists have now warned that Trump’s plans would “lead to higher prices, larger deficits, and greater inequality.” Trade tariffs, one of his obsessions, have a terrible record; even the conservative American Enterprise Institute calls them a tax on consumers and especially the middle class. His plans would hugely increase the national deficit, as he already did as president. His planned tax cuts, as before, would largely benefit more affluent Americans, and even raise taxes on the middle class. The Trump tax cuts were permanent for corporations but temporary for the non-rich (surprise?). His previous policies did not help the majority of those who supported him, but did further enrich his donors and family. Inequality is ever-increasing in America; some politicians try to at least fight in some ways, while others, using people like Trump as front men, are all too happy to make things even worse.
Immigration: Trump seems obsessed with this issue, but his record on it is poor, with his signature “build a wall” slogan turning out to be not only ineffectual but a grifting scam, with one of its main architects convicted of fraud. If Trump were to implement his plans to deport millions, beyond all the disruption and suffering it would cause, prices for basics such as food and services could skyrocket and many businesses would struggle fail for lack of employees. It would also have no impact on crime; there is no “immigrant crime wave” as immigrants, legal or not, actually commit crimes at lower rates than other Americans. Trump scuttled a bipartisan immigration deal solely for his own political interests, showing he really doesn’t care about the topic but is only using it for his own self-interest, one of the oldest political ploys there is. I recently re-read F. Scott Fitzgerald’s The Great Gatsbyand was struck by this slice of dielectric conversation in a waterfront mansion: “Civilization’s going to pieces… Have you read ‘The rise of the Colored Empires’ by this man Goddard?….everyone ought to read it. The idea is that if we don’t look out the white race will be - will be utterly submerged. it’s all scientific stuff; it’s been proved.” Fitzgerald was cleverly mocking this nonsense a century ago (the book was a real one), but in my hometown, old white guys in waterfront mansions who support Trump are saying the same things today.
Health Care: Trump has no actual plan, other than again attacking Obamacare which has provided coverage for many millions of Americans, not only a humane accomplishment but one that saves many millions of dollars and much suffering by avoiding expensive emergency care and more severe disease treatment due to neglected care. Medicare and Medicaid “socialized medicine” as such programs used to be denigrated - are among the GOP’s targets, although they will not admit that and seem to want to eventually starve the programs via tax cuts that could eventually bankrupt them. Trump botched much of the response to the Covid pandemic, endorsing bogus “cures” and more, resulting in uncountable preventable deaths, and the one major accomplishment during his presidency, the rapid development and deployment of Covid vaccines, was undermined by his confusing messages about them, resulting in a surge of opposition to vaccines in general. His embrace of the now-disgraceful JFK Jr., who would be a public health disaster in any official role, is ample evidence of that. The vast majority of healthcare experts oppose the approaches to health policy Trump seems to favor, which at best could be called malign neglect.
Reproductive Health and Rights: The record here is tragically clear. The reversal of Roe v. Wade has thus far resulted in not fewer but more abortions, plus suffering, death, and much anguish, confusion, and costs among women and the health professionals seeking to help them. He reversed international policy with resulting increased abortion and death of women worldwide, and has increased infant mortality - the actual death of babies “pro-lifers” say they oppose. Trump has now waffled severely on this issue and lied about his convictions and intentions for political reasons, but his Supreme Court justices and JD Vance remain clearly committed to curtailing reproductive rights no matter what the awful impacts are, and even oppose the proven ways to decrease abortions such as contraception access and education. Again, national medical and public health experts - and a strong majority of Americans - all oppose what Trump has done and further intends to do.
The Environment: Trump has been called the worst president ever on environmental issues by leading experts and organizations in the field. On climate he set back any progress by years, and recently offered to further reverse climate progress in exchange for a billion dollars from oil interests, a classic “swamp” deal. His deregulation of industries has led to more unhealthful chemicals in the environment and in human bodies. Other species have suffered as well through his weakening of protection of wild lands and parks. Those who actually care about future generations and study environmental science despair at the policies Trump favors and wonder how such people can look their children and grandchildren in the eye. Overall, Scientific American rates Trump as anti-science in many realms, breaking their long tradition of not weighing in on political races. He’s that bad.
Foreign Policy: Trump benefitted from previous policies and trends regarding conflict overseas, which has undeniably increased in recent years. But his claims that such conflicts would not happen if he were in charge are absurd, as his courting and admiration of dictators and despots really means that they can do as they wish. He would abandon Ukraine to Putin. He’s said that he’d help Israel finish the Gaza crisis in a day, an ominous threat. The deal he cut for Afghanistan set the stage for that disastrous withdrawal (which yes, certainly could have been ether handled by Biden). Long lists of foreign policy and security officials, including Trump’s own associates, now oppose him as a disaster for international relations, and say he was easily manipulated by other leaders who knew all they had to do was flatter him. But his family continues to pursue profits overseas, which always seems to be his primary motivation, even if it means maintaining close ties with anti-American tyrants like Putin and more.
Corruption: Americans hate to be conned. Trump’s history includes legal judgments and convictions shutting down both his fake university and foundation, which profited off of people seeking to better their lives. His family business has been convicted of fraud. A long history of legal judgements against him and looming new cases cloud his history. He promises to pardon many more convicted criminals if he can. His family is now moving into crypto, a realm known for scams, with some highly questionable partners. Reputable business figures have long avoided doing business with the Trump family, and thus the long list of scandals and legal entanglements. Strikingly, if Trump had just put the money he inherited long ago into high yield accounts, his wealth would be far higher than it is after endless financial maneuvering, bankruptcies, and legal bills. His “successful businessman” reputation is only believed by those who only see the surface. A very successful friend scoffed at the thought of associating with Trump in any way, saying “I wouldn’t even play cards with the guy, and wouldn’t let him near my daughter either.”
The Military: Trump has a now-long record of saying extremely derogatory things about military leaders and soldiers, especially those who died or were captured. He’s called them losers and suckers and so forth, both publicly and privately. I have no doubt that my own father, a Navy veteran and Republican defense contractor, would have struggled not to restrain himself from violence if he’d met Trump. And now we have an ever growing list of generals and other officers, some from Trump’s own administration, strongly denouncing him. Most recently the nations’s highest ranking military figure, a former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff appointed by Trump, denounced him as “the most dangerous person ever” who is “fascist to the core.” The number of such officials now openly opposing a presidential candidate is unprecedented in American history. Trump once lamented that “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had,” but fortunately, he didn’t get them. Yet.
Political Integrity: Trump contested his loss in the 2020 election but lost in scores of legal efforts to overturn his defeat, many judged by officials of his own party. He fomented a historically shameful riot at the Capitol where many were hurt and even died. He has not backed down on that effort to overturn the Constitution nor committed to respecting future elections. Many suspect his primary motivation is to prevent the many prosecutions still coming his way, as an unprecedented number of his previous political colleagues have been convicted as felons - including Trump himself. His other record on this count is being impeached twice. Thus, a large majority of Trump’s former cabinet and other officials, from his Vice-President onward - his own “best people” - do not support him. This too is unprecedented.
Character and Christianity: Trump lies by default, as has been vastly demonstrated. It might even be his biggest hallmark, as both a trait and tactic, and has helped bring us into the “post -truth world.” He has been credibly accused of sexual assault by at least a dozen women and more, found liable for that, paid off a porn star, cheated on all his wives, and was taped boasting about attacking women. He has a long line of racist and bigoted statements. He has encouraged violence, consorted with self-proclaimed Nazis and white supremicists, and relentlessly pushed profit and self-glorification. When recently told of a pregnant woman dying due to an abortion ban, he replied “Oh. That’s nice.” His documented lies and distortions are unprecedented in number, scope, and topics. The fact that he has hijacked many Christians into supporting him is one of the strangest and saddest aspects of Trumpism. Even many who don’t believe he’s a Christian, as seems obvious and as he’s now admitted, still support him as they think he’s some kind of “warrior.” But his actions and impact are all anti-Christian, the opposite of anything Jesus might say or do. Some thoughtful Christian pastors and the like even fear he might be some sort of antichrist in disguise, corrupting the faith. From all evidence this seems more plausible than any view of him as a Christian.
Mental Health: Joe Biden was forced to withdraw from the presidential race, most now agree rightly so after his declining cognitive state became evident. Growing numbers of both people who know Trump and psychiatrists and other mental health professionals have expressed concern that Trump’s mental state is declining, and his appearances and statements would seem evidence of that. He has refused to release his medical records, unlike all other candidates, and declines debates and interviews, sticking only to his rallies and posts, which are not reassuring in this regard. He’s now canceling appearances due to “exhaustion” too. The author of medicine’s “Goldwater Rule” that psychiatrists should not opine on the mental health of public figures has just altered his view, urging that Trump be evaluated for such problems. The “sanewashing” of Trump by media is finally crumbling - as it did for Biden.
The F-Word: I’ve long resisted the urge many have to apply the term “fascism” to Trump and his cabal. But increasingly I’m not so sure. Authoritarian rule creeps in under other guises. The echoes of previous fascist regimes with many of Trump’s statements and proposals has become harder to deny or ignore. Even the wording he uses for immigrants and others he decries and his harping on “blood purity,” genetics, foreigners, etc too often come from the likes of Mussolini and Hitler. What is often called “populism” is really too often a thin disguise for hatred and bigotry, and the worst elements in a society take up arms in self-styled militias to do the duty work of those who manipulate them. When enough people buy into hatred, it can be organized into fascism. We are being warned. And by Trump himself too, who, again, has said “I need the kind of generals that Hitler had.” A prominent conservative writer Robert Kagan has warned “This is how fascism comes to America, not with jackboots and salutes, but with a television huckster.” Leading scholar of fascism Robert Paxton used to warn the term was overused regarding Trump but has now changed his mind: “It’s the real thing. It really is.”
The T-Effect: JD Vance called Trump “cultural heroin” before himself becoming cravenly hooked on it. It seemed a fair diagnosis, although perhaps methamphetamine would be a more accurate suspect. American politics has long been a nasty game, but there is no denying that Trump has ratcheted that up severely, to the current state of constant slurs, attacks, and even violence as the new normal. This is now widely seen as “The Trump Effect.” President LBJ advised that “If you can convince the lowest white man he’s better than the best colored man, he won’t notice you’ve been picking his pocket. Hell, give him somebody to look down on, and he’ll empty his pockets for you.” Substitute immigrants, “socialists,” or the long list of anybody who won’t toe Trump’s line, and that’s seems the clearest summary of his political credo: Divide and conquer. The result is ugliness.
The C-Word: There are varied but largely consistent definitions of what becomes a cult, but it’s unquestioning loyalty to an authoritarian figure no matter what negative facts there are about him, zero tolerance for criticism or even questions, calling any defectors traitors and liars, endorsing conspiracy fears about any damaging information, exploitation of members by the leader for profit, sex, and power, and generally a fantasy world of good vs. evil where the leader is the sole good. It usually doesn’t end well. But so far, a significant percentage of Americans appear to fit this description to varying degrees, no matter how much reality debunks their view of their leader. I understand the dissatisfaction with Americas leaders and trends, especially regarding inequality and exploitation of hard-working people. But that anyone would believe a proven huckster might really care about and help them is mystifying and disappointing, as it indicates that for them, morality, character, history, expertise, and just plain reality don’t much matter to them anymore. Trump turns people into the “deplorables” Hillary Clinton was so lambasted for identifying, even before some of them stormed that capital, with so much violence, injury and hatred, on what Trump now calls “a day of love.”
The End Game: Here’s my semi-paranoid semi-conspiracy semi-coup scenario: The puppeteers of Heritage/Project 2025, The America First Policy Institute, big tech, and know Trump is devolving quickly. They just want to get him back into the White House. Soon after, though, he’s out, whether by health crisis and ungentle push, a la Biden, or failing that, 25th Amendment removal, or failing that, something more dramatic, violent or not (poison? Easy to do now, w/o a trace). Thus: President Vance, Mr. project 2025, eager to chop the taxes and regulation while still tossing the red meat issues they don’t truly care about to the masses of gullible MAGAs. Would the Trumpian cult go along, with their leader gone? Maybe not at first, but minor resistance, even violent a la Jan 6 again, would fade. A slow but sure coup. From then onward, downward, into dystopia. I’ve been speculating about this possibility for months but now it seems many others are too, as its an idea appeared in the political comics. My smartest political science mentor says “If Trump is still really aware of things, he should be very worried about winning - these are not nice people.”
The Alternative: I suppose Kamala Harris must be mentioned here. The Trumpian critique I keep seeing is “But what has she done?” A legitimate one, but they don’t really want answers. The Vice-presidency is a notoriously frustrating position-in-waiting, and few have ever known much about what VPs do. The internet can provide a list regarding Harris, so far. She was not “in control” of the border or Gaza, but no matter how bad those fronts have been, Trump would be far worse. In fact it’s the long list of what Trump has and would do that makes the choice so clear. Saying she’s only a “lesser evil” means one doesn’t care about women, the environment, you name it.
”Reality is hard for the stupid” as a friend who is veteran political activist since the 1960s puts it, citing the big mistakes of the Vietnam War protest and other movements. It’s a sad reality that perfect is too often the enemy of the good. Especially when the alternative is so demonstrably, undeniably evil.
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