Mendocino County Today: Friday 4/25/2025

Chance Showers | Clifford Missing | Voluntary Resignations | Laughably Pretentious | Lupine | Pension Costs | Helicopter | Unsustainable Spending | Painter Pleas | Fern Fronds | Habit Approved | Jack Stamp | Education Cuts | Beef Cuts | Pancake Breakfast | Plant Sale | Jazz Band | Special Place | Buster Catch | About Roger | All BS | Ed Notes | High Times | Kies Interview | Bernstein Voice | Yesterday's Catch | Junior Olympians | Childhood Disappearing | Giants Win | Repeat Order | Wine Shorts | Power People | Columbia Alumni | Fat Freddy | Stupid Schmuck | Lead Stories | Volcano | Infinite License | Stop Fascists | Counting Killed | Pope Slingshot

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SCATTERED to numerous showers are expected today through Saturday as the cutoff low moves southward. Below normal high temperatures are expected on Saturday. Followed by dry and warming trend Sunday through mid next week. (NWS)

STEPHEN DUNLAP (Fort Bragg): Another cloudy 48F this Friday morning on the coast. While we continue to have dueling forecasts I'll go with a 40% chance of rain later today & a 50% Saturday. Clearing skies & breezy Sunday then clear skies & cool temps next week.

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MENDOCINO COUNTY OFFERING EMPLOYEES UP TO $25,000 TO VOLUNTARILY RESIGN IN WAKE OF BUDGET SHORTFALLS

Last year they did a similar version of this and I think they had maybe half a dozen takers. If the resigner is vested and retires they get a pension which reduces the savings. If they quit and take another job elsewhere, the savings assumes the person is not replaced. If it's in "public safety," they will probably be replaced. I believe the department head has to promise not to replace the person for two years. Of course, there was no calculation of the savings last year and there's no analysis of the impact of the resignations on the affected department. It might make a dent in the deficit, but the deficit is probably much bigger than they say it is. As I noted yesterday, their calculation of the savings from a hiring freeze doesn't add up. Besides, Up to $25k (for the most experienced employees; less for those with less experience) doesn't seem all that tempting. (Mark Scaramella)

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WHEN THE GRAND JURY published that smiling photo of themselves with the Supervisors and the Presiding Judge, they were basically declaring in advance that they had no intention of independently reviewing the County’s operations or performance.

They claim that “Many of the recommendations [in the Marbut report] were adopted by the BOS.” Really? Which ones? And if so, why hasn’t the County implemented a version of the Fort Bragg Care Response Unit which is based on the Marbut report? In fact, whatever of Marbut’s recomendations the Grand Jury may claim were “adopted,” it’s primarily rhetorical, grudging, and bureaucratic, not practical.

The Grand Jury removed all doubt of their collaboration with the Supervisors by adding this laughably pretentious statement which somehow found its way into their review of Mendocino County’s accomplishment-free homelessness industry:

“In a well-crafted letter to Malvolio in Shakespeare’s Twelfth Night, Maria states: ‘Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.’ The Grand Jury hopes [sic] Mendocino County will achieve greatness [sic] by developing and implementing a program to alleviate homelessness, while remembering that the unhoused are human beings deserving care that is sensitive and adequate.”

The Grand Jury “hopes”… Even if by some miracle Mendo was to make a measurable dent to “alleviate” local homelessness, the idea that it would amount to anything remotely like “greatness,” is metaphor right out of the Grand Trumpian Mythology. So much so that their entire “report” can be dismissed without the slightest thought.

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AVA COMMENTER MAZIE MALONE ADDS:

A whole investigation and the conclusion is Homelessness is not yet a dire situation? What?

“While the homeless situation in Mendocino County is not yet dire, programs to address the issue before it becomes horrific are essential. It will be in the best interest of Mendocino County to develop and implement answers to prevent the expansion of homelessness. The Grand Jury believes CORE or other programs developed by the County should be designed to integrate well with the proven methods of CRU.”

“At the time of this report the Grand Jury has not received outcome results from the Care Response Unit that would verify the success of the program!”

WTF? First they say the proven methods are working yet no results have been given to verify it is successful!

Jesus.

So the plan to dislocate people out of the city limits and expand the CRU to do same in the surrounding areas if they cannot be sent home or accept some form of treatment, where will they go? Jail?

Where are they being taken?

What is the cost of sending someone home?

How many people have been sent home and to where?

How many people have been placed in housing and where?

How many placed in treatment and where?

How is the follow-through going once someone is sent off to their perspective place of support and treatment?

What are the numbers for conditions being addressed?

It is important to understand if you are asking for treatment of an SMI [serious mental illness] and substance abuse or just addiction!

Often people will not admit to the mental illness. More importantly, many suffer Anosognosia and do not know that they have one!

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TED STEPHENS:

I had posted the comment below a few weeks ago, but will post it again as I think our pension costs are a material part of any budget discussion. The annual cost, as a percentage of payroll, went up over a Million dollars this fiscal year (to about $37 Million). That would be on top of any payroll increases. Since I left the pension board about 8 years ago the unfunded pension liability has gone up an average of about $8 Million a year and is now about a quarter of Billion dollars for our little county. At some time this will need to be addressed as it isn’t sustainable long-term.

With our budgets I would like to comment on an item that always has, and will continue to, bust our county budgets.

From 2023 to 2024 the employer side of pension expense went from an average of 40.07% per dollar of employees payroll to 41.29%.

The dollar increase is about another $1.1 Million a year (to $36.6 Million), a material item for our budget.

Remember we also pay social security for our county employees and we are still paying off the Pension Obligation Bonds that supposedly took care of the prior unfunded liabilities a couple of times. These costs are not included in the percentages above.

Employee contributions from 2023 to 2024 went from 10.47% to 10.32%, or DOWN about $140 Thousand.

Although I have heard the supervisors say “it is getting better”, since I left the pension board about 8 years ago the unfunded pension liability (debt) has gone from $185 Million in 2016 to $248 Million in 2024 (about $8 Million in debt increase per year).

These numbers are all as of June 2024 when the market was really high.

For some Public Safety Members we pay 86.5% per dollar of payroll into the pension fund for them (they pay 13.98%, down from 14.14% the prior year). This does not include social security or the pension obligation bond load.

We have some very good county employees, but there is nowhere in the private sector any business could survive with this load (and constant increase in debt for a “paid for” item).

The actuarial valuations are always wrong and the county, by law, always picks up the mistakes.

The pension boards are rigged to have a super majority of foxes counting chickens. It is what we call a “Moral Hazard” in economics.

I left the pension board because they refused to evaluate the difference in the rate of return our investment manager was projecting compared to the one the actuaries were projecting. The actuary’s rate suggested lower employee contributions, which would be picked up later, by law, by the taxpayers. The pension board was bold enough, in a public meeting, to not even be concerned about the optics of not evaluating the discrepancy. As a result we have this expense that is supposedly “pay as you go” that has always been the taxpayers need to pay more today for yesterday’s expenses (that were lowballed due to the Moral Hazard).

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A READER WRITES: The County is tapping $3.3 million of the “Retirement Contribution Reserve” to pay for pension obligation bonds, an expense that has been around for decades. The “Retirement Contribution Reserve” was set aside by Angelo to shield the county from spikes in retirement cost increases, not for ongoing expected expenses. This is a very bad idea as nationally we’re teetering on the edge of a recession and historic shifts of trust in the US Dollar and general global trust in America. A retirement cost spike is coming, and they’re spending down the reserve on an existing predictable expense to prop up more unsustainable spending.

Also undisclosed is the Voluntary Separation Incentive. That actually costs money up front with savings down the road, mostly in subsequent fiscal years so long as you don’t refill the position. Where is that up front cost considered? There’s so much wrong here… The budget team seems lost.

It’s sad but predictable that Kendall is only now cluing in that the tax sharing agreement and annexation is a colossal screw job for the county and that there simply is no way it will not impact the Sheriff’s Office. One of Ukiah’s selling points that they made to the Board was that the City was going to take over law enforcement for those areas and the Sheriff’s Office even sent some dope to the meeting to agree that was somehow a good idea to take away the both the SO’s responsibilities and revenue. I’m pretty much convinced that Angelo and Pinches were the last two people to ever give a damn about the county and certainly the last two to have any intelligence in their approach to trying to save the county from itself. I don’t see how this does not end in bankruptcy at this point. If you’re a retiree you should be paying attention and getting organized. Your retirement can absolutely be touched.

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DUI + MORE SCOFFLAW TEES UP WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BE A HARD FALL.

As potential jurors were gathering in the downstairs jury assembly room this past Monday morning at Ukiah's downtown courthouse, preparations were already underway in an upstairs courtroom for a misdemeanor trial to begin that would have required a jury to resolve eleven (11) substantive charges and seven (7) special allegations for or against the trial defendant.

When the prosecutor announced he was ready to begin jury selection, the defendant seemingly had second thoughts and requested additional time to speak with his attorney.

Thereafter, when all was said and discussed, defendant Patrick Lee Painter, Jr., age 52, of Ukiah, chose to throw in the towel, waive his right to multiple trials by jury, and admit criminal culpability in each of his four pending cases.

In the first case that was scheduled to get underway on Monday, defendant Painter entered a no contest plea and admissions to each of the following misdemeanor charges and special allegations:

(1) Driving a motor vehicle on December 24, 2022 with a blood alcohol greater than .08. He admitted a blood test taken after his arrest showed he was driving with an aggravated blood alcohol of .30. He also admitted having suffered a prior conviction for DUI in 2021 out of Tuolumne County;

(2) Driving a motor vehicle on December 24, 2022 when his licensed had been suspended because of the prior DUI conviction. He admitted having suffered a prior suspended license conviction in 2021 in Tuolumne County;

(3) Driving a motor vehicle on December 24, 2022 without having a court-ordered ignition-interlock device installed on his vehicle;

(4) Resisting or delaying a peace officer on December 24, 2022;

(5) Committing a battery on February 10, 2023 on a minor female working the counter at a local fast food restaurant;

(6) Driving a motor vehicle on February 10, 2023 with a blood alcohol greater than .08. He admitted a blood test taken after his arrest showed he was driving with an aggravated blood alcohol of just over .20. He also admitted having suffered the prior conviction for DUI in 2021 in Tuolumne County;

(7) Driving a motor vehicle on February 10, 2023 when his licensed had been suspended because of the prior DUI conviction. He again admitted having suffered the prior suspended license conviction in 2021 in Tuolumne County;

(8.) Providing false information to a peace officer on February 10, 2023;

(9) Driving a motor vehicle on February 13, 2024 without having a court-ordered ignition-interlock device installed on his vehicle; and

(10) Driving a motor vehicle on June 18, 2024 when his license was still suspended because of the prior DUI conviction. He again admitted having suffered the prior suspended license conviction in 2021 in Tuolumne County.

In the second and third felony cases that were scheduled to go before a jury in June, defendant Painter also entered a no contest plea and admitted special allegations to each of the following combinations of felony and misdemeanor charges:

(1) Recklessly evading a peace officer on May 21, 2024, a felony;

(2) Driving a motor vehicle on May 21, 2024 when his licensed was still suspended because of the aforementioned prior DUI conviction. He again admitted having suffered the prior suspended license conviction in 2021 in Tuolumne County.

(3) Driving a motor vehicle on May 21, 2024 without having a court-ordered ignition-interlock device installed on his vehicle; and

(4) Willfully failing to appear in court on July 9, 2024 after having posted bail, a felony. He also admitted an accompanying sentencing enhancement alleging that this second felony occurred while he was released from custody and litigating the first felony.

In the fourth case that had not yet been set for trial, defendant Painter entered a no contest plea to driving a motor vehicle on July 18, 2024 with a forged or otherwise false registration, a misdemeanor.

Again, a no contest plea to a felony crime in California is the same in all regards as pleading guilty.

A no contest plea to a misdemeanor crime in California is also the same as pleading guilty, except a misdemeanor no contest plea cannot be used to prove civil liability by an opposing litigant in a civil action.

The defendant’s raft of convictions were referred to the Mendocino County Adult Probation Department for a background study and sentencing recommendation. Defendant Painter was ordered to cooperate with Probation’s investigation and return to court on July 24th for formal sentencing.

As the defendant’s admissions of criminal culpability were “open,” meaning the prosecutor made no promises as to the ultimate sentencing outcome, defendant Painter is looking at a minimum of probation with up to a year in the county jail climbing to a maximum of almost six years in state prison.

The law enforcement agencies involved in documenting defendant Painter’s crime spree were the Ukiah Police Department, the California Department of Justice forensic crime laboratory, the California Highway Patrol, and the DA’s own Bureau of Investigations.

The trial attorney handling all of defendant Painter’s cases is District Attorney David Eyster.

Retired Mendocino County Superior Court Judge Jeanine Nadel, sitting on temporary assignment, accepted the defendant’s changes of plea.

Judge Nadel will be back on special assignment in the Mendocino County Superior Court on July 24th to preside over the sentencing hearing.

(DA Presser)

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UKIAH APPROVES HABIT BURGER PERMIT

by Justine Fredericksen

The city of Ukiah recently approved a permit requested for a Habit Burger & Grill restaurant to operate out of the former Denny’s location on Pomeroy Street.

At the last meeting of the city’s Zoning Administrator this month, a minor site development permit for the project was approved by Craig Schlatter, who also serves as the city’s director of Community Development, after a public hearing in which only a project representative spoke.

However, city staff did note that at least two public comments were received just prior to the public hearing, one that seemed supportive of the project, and one that expressed concern about how the proposed business would affect traffic in the area.

The entrance to the former Denny’s parking lot is very close to one of the busiest intersections in Ukiah, the four corners where Orchard Avenue meets Perkins Street that include two busy restaurants and two busy gas stations. Even closer to the parking lot are ramps leading on and off Highway 101, plus the Perkins Street overpass leading to more highway access and exit points.

In response to concerns raised by both residents and the California Department of Transportation, Senior City Planner Jess Davis said that the applicant modified the project “to address Caltrans’ comment regarding the interchange of Pomeroy and Perkins streets, and this was primarily to facilitate what is called a ‘neck down’ of that encroachment, to narrow the entrance and facilitate a more clear circulation pattern for the property.

The applicant has achieved this by ‘necking down” that encroachment, moving it away from the interchange, using a combination of landscaping and curbs, and those landscaping changes will improve the overall coverage of the property, and also enhances the safety considerations for that intersection by ensuring that there is more distance between the stop sign and the exit onto Pomeroy (Street).”

In addition, Davis noted that “the city of Ukiah is undergoing a comprehensive update to a number of streets… and there will be changes to help improve traffic flow at Orchard Avenue and Perkins Street,” and that city staff will “be working with Caltrans on a longterm vision to address the Perkins Street corridor.”

Davis also noted that “the intensity of use at this restaurant is expected to be less than that of the Denny’s, (which) was a 24-hour restaurant that featured service for 72 parking spaces, and Habit Burger is primarily an afternoon and evening establishment” that will have 43 parking spaces.

Issues with people camping on the property were brought up when the Design Review Board considered the project, and Schlatter noted that when he visited the property it appeared that someone was sleeping behind a “pony wall,” and asked if that wall would be removed.

Davis said the wall would be removed, and “that south elevation will be primarily for the staff entrance to the kitchen, and will have bicycle parking. The storage areas will be removed, and the trash closures will be moved to another area.”

The applicant representative added that “we’d love to see this property get redeveloped, bringing jobs to the city and (having) a successful business there. I think everyone in the community wants that.”

Schlatter then approved the permit for the business.

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FORT BRAGG SCHOOLS BRACE FOR FEDERAL CUTS

by Mary Benjamin

Fort Bragg Unified School District is facing the recent storm of federal executive orders directed at all public schools in California. California, along with other states, has filed multiple lawsuits against federal government orders intended to eliminate services and eliminate core educational values.

In March of 2025, California and 19 other states filed their first lawsuit challenging the Trump administration’s plan for extensive layoffs in its Department of Education. The proposal to cut the department’s workforce in half would essentially dismantle the department.

In a letter to all public school districts, California State Superintendent of Education Tony Thurmond wrote that “recent actions by the administration have caused real harm to students, families, and educators, including the elimination of contracts with agencies who provide support for schools and students.”

FBUSD Superintendent Joe Aldridge confirmed that the district had received the letter. He said, “The assurances we’ve gotten from the state are that they will defend and fight for the values we have here in California regarding education and our students.”

California Attorney General Rob Bonta declared that the federal administration “ignores the valuable role the Department of Education plays in ensuring the health, safety, and education of our children.”

It administers, Bonta continued, “programs that assist children from low-income families, providing vocational training, and enforcing anti-discrimination laws, among countless other responsibilities fundamental to our educational system.”

He added, “Dismantling the Department of Education from within would have catastrophic consequences…and is blatantly illegal.”

California filed another lawsuit in March challenging the federal order to end grant programs for teacher training, a resource that California universities rely upon for their teacher training programs. California stands to lose about $600 million.

The federal order later also announced a process to take back the COVID-19 relief funds allocated to the states. States were guaranteed to spend all those funds through March of 2026. Many states, including California, have yet to claim their full allotment.

The planned cut of California’s funds amounts to about $200 million. In response, California and other states filed another suit to challenge this.

On Friday, April 11, California issued a formal refusal to follow the executive order to end all diversity, equity, and inclusion programs in its public schools. The order gave a deadline of April 24 for all schools in all states to send certification that these programs have been removed.

In a letter to all school districts, California’s Chief Deputy Superintendent of Education David Schapria wrote, “There is nothing in state or federal law…that outlaws the broad concepts of ‘diversity,’ ‘equity,’ or ‘inclusion.’” He added that the request was vague and did not define the three terms.

The state risks $10 to $16 billion in cut funds for refusing to comply. Many California school districts depend upon the federal dollars to finance about ten percent of their budgets. These funds are used for school lunch programs, Special Education, and early education such as Head Start programs.

Superintendent Aldridge said he has advised the FBUSD Board of Trustees that the district should “continue to do locally what we have control of.” He added, “We’re really focusing on making sure our students feel safe and accepted and can participate fully despite all these distractions that are happening at the federal level.”

Aldridge outlined his position and that of the FBUSD Board of Trustees regarding the order to cease DEI in all forms or be denied federal funds. “When we agreed to accept federal funding, we agreed to non-discrimination laws that are in place,” he said. “Those conditions haven’t changed. No new laws have been passed that would affect those at this point.”

He continued, “The position we are taking is we are in compliance at this point because we’ve gone through those procedures already that are built into the structure.”

Aldridge noted that the district had lost “a bit of grant funding” they had for purchasing local foods for the cafeteria. Fortunately, a new grant from the state has replaced that. “Other than that,” he said, “we’ve been largely unaffected. The majority of our federal funding is tied up in Title I and money for Special Education.”

For this school district, about 10% of its annual budget is funded by the federal government. According to Aldridge, this translates into about $3 million. He said, “That would be hard to absorb in the long term. In the short term, we may have reserves that can help mitigate that for a little while.”

Aldridge noted that the district had already reduced its budget this year by about $800,000. He said the reduction was to bring the budget more in line with actual dollars. He commented, “Employees are 80% of the budget. We could probably make do for a year, but I don’t want to have to do that.”

He continued, “I’m not sure how the state would absorb that, but I think that’s also a value at the state level. I do trust that at the state level, they’re coming up with some contingencies on how we could address that situation.”

The federal government has also announced it will conduct a formal investigation of California’s Safety Act AB 1955, signed in July of 2024. The act’s intent is to protect the safety of LGBTQ+ students from bullying and violence. The state’s original 2023 law follows the language of the U.S. Congress Family Educational Rights and Privacy Act (FERPA) of 1974 that protects student privacy of educational records.

Parents and students have control over the release of any information from student records, including personally identifiable information. They may also request changes be made in the records. The state’s 2024 version includes student privacy regarding sexual or gender orientation.

California’s version included a state-wide requirement for all schools to provide and maintain at least one all-gender restroom with signage for student use by July of 2026.

Aldridge noted that the district schools already have an all-gender restroom at each site. Plans in the works for a new Alternative Education school site include all bathrooms as all-gender. He commented, “It’s a good thing. It’s cuts down on shenanigans in the bathroom.”

Aldridge said that the bottom line for the district is to “remain committed to the students and the community.”

(Ukiah Daily Journal)

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RISE AND SHINE - IT'S PANCAKE TIME!

Swing by the Whitesboro Grange Hall at 32510 Navarro Ridge Rd., Albion, on Sunday, April 27 for a morning full of good food and even better company! From 8 to 11:30 AM, we’ll be serving up stacks of fluffy pancakes, farm-fresh eggs, ham, orange juice and hot coffee that keeps on pouring.

Whether you’re a regular or it’s your first time, everyone’s welcome at the table. Bring the kids, bring your neighbor, or just bring your appetite.

It’s only $10 for adults, $5 for kids (6-12), and the littlest ones (under 6) eat free. Every plate supports your local Grange and the community we love.

We’ll keep the griddle hot—hope to see you there!

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BLUE MEADOW FARM PLANT SALE

Saturday, May 3, 9-3

Sunday, May 4, 9-12

Tomatoes, Peppers, Eggplant

Come early for best selection!

Blue Meadow Farm, 3301 Holmes Ranch Rd, Philo, (707) 895-2071

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MENDOCINO COLLEGE JAZZ BAND will perform at MC Center Theater in Ukiah on Thursday, May 8 at 7 p.m. Free.

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LADORA SHORT-COOPER:

I only lived in the valley a few years but I have visited there all my life. We moved there in late 1955 and moved to the Yuba City area in 1958. Because I have a lot of family still living in the Valley the connection for me is very strong. My sister Marvie and I spent lots of summers and holidays with our cousins (sisters) the Tucker girls. We loved every moment we were there. Jimmy Short was always and still is a wonderful part our lives. I now live in Redding, CA and love it up here. I have been married 53 years and retired from the State of CA 13 years after 30 years of service. I have enjoyed watching my grandchildren grow up and now have great children to enjoy. I try to get over for visits to the valley as much as I can. It holds a special place in my heart.

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RELATING TO ROGER SCHOENAHL

To the Editor:

Thank you for your remembrance. Roger was a valuable human being. I knew he was autistic, and maybe also a schizophrenic. Probably homeless. But only since his death am I learning Roger was a talented poet and watercolor painter.

Let me say this right off the bat: I always sort of related to Roger's social awkwardness and anti-social behavior. Most people annoy me, too. And I also have my own very good reasons for keeping to myself. I was raped as a kid.

About Roger…

I ran into Roger many times over the years at Riverside Park in Ukiah. Despite the park’s remoteness at the very end of Gobbi Street, people walk their dogs at the park. Lots of them. A hundred dogwalkers every day. Maybe more than a hundred. Maybe a couple hundred. Some of them were afraid of Roger. Most don’t keep their dogs on a lease. Most don’t pick up their dog’s poop. And Roger yelled at them.

On his worse days, Roger would walk around the park, and he seemed angry. He would rant, frightening the dogs and their owners, and everyone else. The park has a Little League field and a BMX track. The park is crowded. But Roger never hurt a fly. It was like Roger was ranting about the fact there are too many people on the planet.

Or maybe Roger was yelling at himself. He seemed like a guy who was hard on himself. A guy always trying to check his dark thoughts. A guy always trying to check his impulses and what bad places his impulses might take him.

Another thing. Roger sometimes carried a small dog in his arms. The small dog never left Roger’s arms. He cradled it like it was his baby. I don’t know where Roger got the dog because I don’t think he owned one. I thought he was homeless.

It’s no surprise Roger chose to kill himself just upstream from the park. He loved the Russian River. and Riverside Park. I have no doubt Roger’s ghost will continue to walk the park. I just pray that whatever demons tormented Roger in life will not continue to pursue him in death.

This morning, I wrote these few lines for Roger — a brother of sorts because he was a poet, like me, and a damaged human being, like me — and I left those few lines on a picnic table at the park. I left them under a small rock. I’m sure the wind has blown them away by now.

For Roger Zane Schoenahl
poet

And now you have become the past.

How shall I say?
In ordinary discourse—

“I’m sorry you committed suicide.”

How do we talk now?

I am no longer sure of the words.

But we must talk now.
I’m still afraid of you.
But fear is only fear.
Must we abandon one another?

Tell me the secrets of the Dead.

What is inexplicable?

John Sakowicz

Ukiah

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ED NOTES

LUCILLE ESTES, formerly of Boonville's Airport Estates, is presently living with her son in Lake County. She just turned a still lucid 101. Among her many gifts, Lucille was among the County's top gardeners, if not the County's absolute top gardener, with an encyclopedic knowledge of local plants and people.

SHE once suggested we serialize the late Effie Hulbert's fine account of her Yorkville youth, which Effie spent among The Valley's last Native Americans, an account not only of Mrs. Hulbert's own experiences as a Yorkville native, but an account of what she had been told by Anderson Valley's native people about their lives in The Valley all the way back to the arrival of the Spaniards, circa 1820-1830.

LUCILLE knew Effie and Harry Hulbert. She'd first met the Hulberts when they were responsible for a sheep ranch adjacent to the Estes homestead on a ridge above Guerneville. "Harry Hulbert was the most handsome man I'd ever seen," Lucille remembered. "He looked like Tyrone Power." She said Effie was "quiet and soft spoken." Lucille had visited the Hulberts at their Yorkville home where, Lucille recalls, "Effie had the walls of her livingroom covered with Indian baskets."

LORNA BUCHANAN is Effie's daughter by Effie's first husband. Ms. Buchanan, a nurse, lives in Capitola. She is Effie's sole descendant. I would think Ms. Buchanan owns the copyright to her mother's important book, although it's printed and sold by the Anderson Valley Historical Society. We also understand in a roundabout way that the many baskets and other artifacts Effie possessed at her Yorkville home — she died in the middle 1960s — somehow wound up on exhibit at the Trees of Mystery just north of Klamath, Del Norte County, which is Yurok territory.

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BRIDGET KIES ON ‘MURDER, SHE WROTE’

The first weekend of May marks the second annual Murder, She Wrote Festival, bringing hundreds of fans of all ages to Mendocino. The series aired from 1984 to 1996 and has been in syndication since, contributing to its lasting popularity. In her 2025 book Murder, She Wrote, Bridget Kies investigates this popularity, and the impact Jessica Fletcher had on television roles for women. Kies discussed these subjects and more in the following interview.

Q. How did you become interested in Murder, She Wrote?

“It’s a show I grew up with and kept returning to at important points in my life. When I was little and it was first broadcast, I remember my family voting on who we thought the murderer was during the final commercial break before Jessica revealed the killer. Later, in graduate school, I decided to rewatch every episode in order, and I realized the series was, for me, a quintessential comfort TV show. Sometimes, when I’m in social situations where I feel uncomfortable, I’ll ask myself, “What would Jessica Fletcher do?” And it helps me figure out how to act and what to say. It’s just a series that’s always been around in my life and has shaped me in ways I’m still realizing.”

Q. At the Kelley House, we’ve been asked— “What’s the big deal behind Murder, She Wrote?” How would you explain fandom culture and the fandom behind Murder, She Wrote to people who aren’t fans?

“Murder, She Wrote has been on television steadily for forty years. There’s no way that could happen without a thriving fandom. It came on television a little before the term “cozy mystery” was coined, when mystery novels started following the same trend of having an amateur sleuth and minimal violence. The cozy exploded during Murder, She Wrote’s run, and, I argue, the series was one of the reasons that we have so many mystery movies and series on television today. In chapter four of my book I interview fans and talk in a lot more detail about fan practices, but briefly I’ll just say that part of what makes us so connected to Murder, She Wrote is that it was one of the last great episodic series broadcast for household viewing at the exact moment television started to become more fractured and more individual. It reminds us of watching with our families on Sunday nights. Among fans of a certain age, I hear over and over, “I used to watch with my grandmother!” So, for some, Jessica and their grandmother have become conflated in ways that making watching the show now a nostalgic experience that reminds them of their own grandmother and their childhood.”

Q. Do you have a favorite anecdote from the research and writing process for this book? Or a story from the show you uncovered?

“I found a lot of treasures while looking through Angela Lansbury’s archive at Boston University: a credit card receipt Peter Shaw (Lansbury’s husband) had signed that still had his credit card number, a hotel restaurant ticket from when the family was in Budapest filming Mrs. ’Arris Goes to Paris, just some great stuff that really told me more about who Lansbury was. Probably my favorite Murder, She Wrote finds were the multiple drafts of letters she wrote to the writers and producers asserting how they should and shouldn’t write Jessica Fletcher. The multiple drafts show Lansbury’s thoughtfulness in her personal correspondence, and her ideas show her commitment to the series and her character. She was obviously deeply protective of Jessica.”

Q. In this book, you discuss Jessica Fletcher, her role as an older female character and comparable roles, like those in The Golden Girls. What impact do you think Jessica had on shifting Hollywood characterizations of older women, even after Murder, She Wrote ended?

“Jessica had a huge impact on portrayals of older women. She was single, successful, and had a fabulous life in which she flew around the world meeting people and solving mysteries. While she wasn’t the only older woman character like this, or the first, the fact that she persisted on TV for twelve years of the original broadcast and now forty with syndicated reruns means Jessica has had a lasting impact on generations of children who’ve grown up with the series. There were lots of women on television in the 1980s who had careers, and often the plots of episodes are about how they struggle to balance work and home or how they don’t feel respected enough in the workplace or committed enough as mothers. Murder, She Wrote – and The Golden Girls, too – told us not to worry so much about that because once we reach our sixties, with kids grown and husbands gone, we’ll be able to do anything we want and be successful at it. I don’t think we should underestimate how powerful that message was.

In the last ten or so years, we’ve seen a rise of television and streaming series with older women, after decades of Hollywood being criticized for not having enough meaningful roles for women over forty. I like to say that the new Matlock with Kathy Bates is a fitting successor to Murder, She Wrote. Week after week, we see Bates’s character fix problems, just like Jessica Fletcher solved mysteries. Both of them use their age to their advantage when people assume it to be a limitation. I just love the way we see older women outsmart everyone around them.”

Q. Do you have a favorite episode of Murder, She Wrote that was filmed in Mendocino? A favorite murder weapon?

“The Cabot Cove episodes have always been my favorites, which means I’ve loved Mendocino before I even knew that’s where some of the episodes were filmed! But my favorite is “If It’s Thursday, It Must Be Beverly.” I even made a point to do an extended analysis of that episode in my book because I think it’s one of the best examples of how Murder, She Wrote used humor to lighten its tone.

I don’t know if this counts as a murder weapon, but in “It’s a Dog’s Life,” the beagle Teddy was trained to push a button to open and close the security gate to a fancy property. He was cued to push the button right as someone was trying get through the gate, and it killed her. So Teddy was actually the murderer, even if he didn’t know that’s what he was doing. I adore dogs, so I hate that he was used this way, but it’s a pretty clever plot twist. There’s even an episode of Monk that calls back to the idea.”

“Murder, She Wrote” by Bridget Kies may be purchased at Gallery Bookshop on Main Street, Mendocino.

(A small Angela Lansbury exhibit is on view at the Kelley House Museum. We’re open Thur-Mon, 11-3. Subscribe to the Kelley House newsletter for info on next year’s Murder, She Wrote Festival. https://www.kelleyhousemuseum.org/about-newsletter-archives/. This event is an unofficial event and is not associated with NBCUniversal.)

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CATCH OF THE DAY, Thursday, April 24, 2025

RENEE BADGER, 49, Fort Bragg. Reckless driving, failure to appear, probation revocation.

TRINITY MARTIN, 29, Redwood Valley. Disorderly conduct-under influence, resisting.

RICHARD NEAGLE, 45, Willits. Disorderly conduct-alcohol, drinking in public, paraphernalia, concealed dirk-dagger.

SEBASTIAN RABANO, 45, Ukiah. Disorderly conduct-alcohol, parole violation.

KYLE SHUSTER, 37, Ukiah. Domestic battery, concealed weapon in vehicle.

JOSEPH STONE, 37, San Luis Obispo/Ukiah. Probation revocation.

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CHILDHOOD FADES AWAY

Editor:

When did you last witness children outside playing children's games like jump rope, hopscotch, jacks, hide and seek or Simon says? The idea of childhood is disappearing at dazzling speed. From birth each of us is struggling to fashion our unique personality against the claims of society. Until recently children had their own clothing, furniture, literature, games — their own culture. Now they are being lured into adult culture. Social media trivializes our culture by requiring a continuous supply of novel and exciting material to engage and hold children's attention. Screen technology is stealing childhoods ("Kids spend too much class time on laptops," Forum, March 30).

Although TV and social media make no distinction between a 5-year-old and a 65-year-old, some adult material must be kept secret from children. Youth today can access adult material not available before social media. The media culture of childhood is teaching them loneliness, immediate gratification and desire for wealth and fame. We become what we pay attention to.

We are losing control of the information environment of the young. Children are the living messages we send to the future.

Gene A. Hottel

Santa Rosa

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GIANTS BEAT BREWERS THURSDAY AS MATT CHAPMAN SPARKS COME-FROM BEHIND RALLY WITH HIGH-POWERED HOME RUN

by Shayna Rubin

Willy Adames got the last word against his former team Thursday afternoon, hitting a sacrifice fly in the eighth inning that Christian Yelich didn’t catch as the San Francisco Giants rallied to beat Milwaukee 6-5.

Three innings earlier, Matt Chapman did something no one else in MLB has done this season to pull the Giants within striking distance.

In the fifth inning, Chapman launched Brewers reliever Abner Uribe’s 100.4 mph fastball 411 feet into center field for a two-run home run, cutting the Giants’ deficit to one run and making a bit of history in the process.

It was the first home run hit off a pitch of at least 100 mph in MLB this season. Even Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani, known for his quick hands and even quicker bat speed, hasn’t done it yet. Ohtani, though, is one of seven players in total to hit a home run on a pitch between 99 and 99.9 mph.

“I know for him it was probably chill,” Adames said of Chapman’s feat. “But for the whole team, it’s been insane. He’s been hitting the ball really well, he hasn’t had a lot of luck getting the hits, but it’s very impressive going dead center here.”

Furthermore, Chapman is the second Giant in the pitch-tracking era (since 2008) to hit a home run on a 100-plus mph pitch.

Heliot Ramos became the first last September against San Diego Padres reliever Robert Suarez when he scorched a 100.2 mph fastball into McCovey Cove for the first ever Splash Hit by a right-handed hitter. Ramos knows just how hard it is to make that kind of contact on three-digit heaters.

“Just trying to be on time and be in a good space to try to see the ball,” Ramos said. “Honestly, the main thing is being on time because guys are just throwing hard and you have to be ready for it.”

Even before Ramos’ historic water shot, the last Giant to hit a home run off a pitch at least 99 mph was Kevin Pillar on a Robert Stock fastball in 2019. After that, the only other Giants since 2008 to hit a home run off a 99 mph fastball are Brandon Crawford and Michael Morse in 2015 and Aubrey Huff in 2011.

To win bunches of games at Oracle Park, the Giants determined air-tight defense and pitching would be the cornerstones of their roster. But for a second time the series, a sloppy defensive inning nearly did them in.

The Brewers’ big inning against starter Landen Roupp began with a Joey Ortiz single. Milwaukee went into small-ball mode, advancing him to second on a ground out. Then Roupp’s wild pitch moved Ortiz to third. Nine-spot hitter Eric Haase put more pressure on the infield defense with a sacrifice bunt to Chapman at third. First baseman LaMonte Wade Jr. — who was still backtracking to the bag — couldn’t get a glove on Chapman’s throw, allowing two runs to score, making it 4-2.

With Roupp out of the game for reliever Spencer Bivens, catcher Sam Huff managed to catch Brice Turang stealing third base to end the messy inning. Roupp gave up five runs (four earned) over 3 ⅔ innings and had more walks (3) than strikeouts (2).

Jung Hoo Lee’s MLB-leading 11th double scored Mike Yastrzemski for the Giants’ first run in the first inning and Yastrzemski came back with a solo home run in the third inning.

For a second night in a row, Camilo Doval came in for the save opportunity. After issuing a leadoff walk, Adames and Chapman came to the mound to calm Doval down. Though he gave up a single, Doval retired the side for his fifth save. Ryan Walker, the closer, was in need of a day off and manager Bob Melvin has said he will go between Walker and Doval in the ninth inning depending on availability.

By taking three of four from Milwaukee, the Giants (17-9) improved to 7-3 at home. … The Giants have won eight games when trailing by at least two runs this season, the most in MLB. … San Francisco’s stretch of playing 17 consecutive days continues Friday night when Bruce Bochy and the Texas Rangers come to Oracle for the first of three games.

(SF Chronicle)

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ESTHER MOBLEY: What I'm Reading

Martin Ray Winery, which bought the De Négoce wine brand from Cameron Hughes last year for $12.5 million, has sued Hughes for trademark infringement, reports Kerana Todorov in Wine Business. Hughes has launched a new company called the Négociant, which Martin Ray claims is too similar to De Négoce. Todorov reports that Hughes signed a non-compete agreement that prevents him from selling wine directly to consumers for a certain period.

In Wine-Searcher, W. Blake Gray reflects on what he calls a “long, slow decline” at Robert Mondavi Winery, now that its owner Constellation has sold Mondavi’s inexpensive spinoff brands — Woodbridge and Robert Mondavi Private Selection — to the Wine Group.

American wine and spirits importers are getting logistically creative in the face of tariffs, writes Courtney Schiessl Magrini in SevenFifty Daily. One New Jersey importer of Spanish and Portuguese wines seems to have found a way to pass along savings to his customers that will virtually negate the current tariff costs.

(SF Chronicle)

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COLUMBIA ALUMNI TALK BACK TO TRUMP

by Jonah Raskin

That great slumbering beast, the Columbia University alumni, has finally awakened. Over 4,000 graduates from all the many schools of the institution, including Law and Medicine, the Teachers College, General Studies and Business have signed a petition that calls on the university to defend academic freedom in the wake of the recent attacks by the Trump administration and the abrupt cancellation of grants for research on cancer treatments, Alzheimer’s disease and more.

The petition reads “The Trump administration has already initiated similar attacks against other universities as part of a larger strategy to quell dissent and undermine core freedoms foundational to democracy.” It adds, “As Columbia alumni we cannot tolerate the thought that our alma mater is the first domino to fall. In the strongest terms, we urge the Columbia board of trustees, the University’s new acting president, and all university leaders to resist capitulation to demands that would erode the University’s academic freedom and independence.”

The petition touts the history of the institution that changed its name from King’s College to Columbia College and notes that Alexander Hamilton and John Jay wrote the character for the new university. It boasts that “Over more than two centuries, Columbia has contributed four U.S. presidents, 87 Nobel laureates and countless leaders in the sciences, government, the law, literature, business and the arts.” The story is more complicated than that.

Over the course of more than two centuries the University has stood on the side of big business, segregation, racism, war, jingoism and the patriarchy. One doesn’t expect that story to be told in a petition denouncing the Trump Administration and demanding academic freedom. A graduate of Columbia College, I’m number 4,069 on the list of signatures. More alumni are sure to add their names.

When 5,000 individuals sign, the organizers, the Columbia Alumni for Academic Freedom, plan to deliver the petition to the acting president of Columbia University, Claire Shipman, a veteran of American TV news organizations, including AMC’s Good Morning America. C. Wright Mills, the author of The Power Elite and a long time professor of sociology at Columbia College might wonder which side she’ll be on when push comes to shove. On April 22, 2025 Shipman and 200 other university presidents signed a public statement calling on the Trump administration to stop “unprecedented government overreach and political interference now endangering American higher education.” Is it too much to ask that they also denounce the assault on democracy?

(Jonah Raskin is the author of Beat Blues, San Francisco, 1955.)

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ON-LINE COMMENT OF THE DAY

There are people out there who argue that viruses do not exist, that the covid virus was never isolated or identified and that the sicknesses we as people are experiencing is because of the foods we are eating and the chemicals and preservatives they put into the foods. That sickness is the means of the body attempting to de-toxify itself. I am just a stupid schmuck from rural Utah so I don't know one way or the other. Just things I read from time to time.

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LEAD STORIES, FRIDAY'S NYT

George Santos, Expelled From House, Now Faces Sentencing

What Elon Musk Didn’t Budget For: Firing Workers Costs Money, Too

Hegseth’s Personal Phone Use Created Vulnerabilities, Analysts Say

Cardinals Gather in Vatican to Fine Tune Preparations for Pope’s Funeral

Odes to Mexican Drug Lords Are Pop Hits, but the Law Is Turning Against Them

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INFINITE LICENSE

by Omer Bartov

On January 12, 1904, the Herero people of German Southwest Africa — today’s Namibia — launched a series of attacks on scattered German farms in the territory. The Herero, a pastoral group of about 80,000, depended on their vast cattle herds for their economic, social, and cultural life, but the German settlers who had begun to arrive in the late 19th century increasingly encroached on their grazing lands.

The rebels destroyed many of the farms and killed more than a hundred settlers, mostly sparing women and children. For the settlers the rebellion served as a final proof of the need to eradicate the Herero, whom they described as “baboons.” Unable to restore order, the German governor appealed to Berlin, which sent some 10,000 soldiers. By August they had crushed the Herero fighters. In October the German commander, Lieutenant General Lothar von Trotha, issued what has come to be known as his Vernichtungsbefehl (extermination order) to those who remained:

“The Herero are German subjects no longer. They have killed, stolen, cut off the ears and other parts of the body of wounded soldiers, and now are too cowardly to want to fight any longer… The Herero nation must now leave the country. If it refuses, I shall compel it to do so with the big cannon. Any Herero found inside the German frontier, with or without a gun or cattle, will be executed. I shall spare neither women nor children.”

Most of the Herero were shot or died of thirst and hunger in the desert to which they had been expelled. Several thousand were taken to forced labor camps.

For many decades the public and historians alike ignored this first genocide of the 20th century. Germany’s famous Vergangenheitsbe wältigung (coming to terms with or overcoming the past) was about the Holocaust, not long-forgotten colonial crimes. Only in 2021 did the German government officially apologize for “the suffering, inhumanity and pain inflicted on the tens of thousands of innocent men, women and children by Germany during the war in what is today Namibia.” It also pledged over a billion euros in reparations, although the distribution of this money remains contentious, not least because the Germans negotiated with the Namibian government rather than with the Herero themselves.

That remote genocide at the dawn of the 20th century shares some remarkable similarities with the campaign of ethnic cleansing and annihilation prosecuted by Israel in Gaza. Israel saw the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, in much the same way that the Germans saw the Herero attack years earlier: as confirmation that the militant group was utterly savage and barbaric, that resistance to Israeli occupation would always incline toward murder, and that Gaza’s Palestinian population as a whole should be removed from the moral universe of civilization. “Human animals must be treated as such,” the Israeli major general Ghassan Alian (who is Druze) said shortly after the attack, echoing several other Israeli officials, including former defense minister Yoav Gallant. “There will be no electricity and no water [in Gaza], there will only be destruction. You wanted hell, you will get hell,” Alian said in an Arabic-language video message directed to Hamas as well as the residents of Gaza. Over the next 17 months Israeli forces killed more than 50,000 Palestinians, over 70% of whom are estimated to have been civilians, maimed well over 100,000, and imposed on the remaining population conditions of inhuman deprivation, suffering, and pain. A cease-fire that went into effect on January 19 ended abruptly on March 18, when Israel refused to move on to the second phase of its agreement with Hamas and launched another series of unilateral attacks that have already killed hundreds more Palestinian civilians.

But from another perspective the events of 1904 and 2023 are less symmetrical. The Germans could justify the genocide of the Herero because they viewed them as savages, and they forgot about it because it was perpetrated far from Europe on a group generally unknown outside southwest Africa. The Israelis are perpetrating a genocide in Gaza because they perceive Palestinians as savages, but they have justified it as a response to another potential genocide that would be akin to the Holocaust, carried out by Hamas militants who were rehearsing for another Final Solution. Former prime minister Naftali Bennett was one of many who insisted that “we are fighting Nazis.” Dina Porat, a Holocaust historian, wrote in Haaretz on October 21, 2023, that Hamas “cultivates a burning hatred for the devil they created in their imagination, as Nazi ideology did in its time.” In a poll conducted in Israel in May 2024, more than half the respondents said that the Hamas attack could be compared to the Holocaust.

(New York Review of Books)

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BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT

by Claire Wilmot

If the British government is to be believed, only one civilian has been killed by its armed forces during its air war against the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. On 26 March 2018, according to a statement made by the then UK defense secretary, Gavin Williamson, a British drone was preparing to strike three IS fighters in the eastern Syrian desert when a civilian motorcyclist zoomed into the target area. It was too late for the drone’s operator to reverse course and the man was killed along with the combatants.

As part of the US-led Operation Inherent Resolve, Britain has dropped more than 4300 bombs on Iraq and Syria since 2014, many of them in densely populated urban centers, and claims to have killed more than four thousand IS fighters. The US admits that the coalition has killed at least 1437 civilians, though the likely toll is far higher. Airwars, a British civilian casualty research organization, puts the number between eight and thirteen thousand.

In 2021, more than a thousand documents were declassified and shared with the New York Times, detailing how the US determines whether civilians have been killed or injured in its airstrikes on Iraq and Syria. If there is evidence, such as strike footage, that suggests it is more likely than not that a civilian was harmed, the report moves up the chain of command for more detailed review. Even with this relatively low standard of proof, based on a balance of probabilities, the US undercounts the deadly effects of its operations, as reporting on the ground has demonstrated. There is no reason to believe that British strikes are so much more precise than US ones, so what accounts for the dramatic difference in civilian casualties?

The explanation for the discrepancy may lie in the way the British armed forces count the dead. But so far the Ministry of Defense has refused to disclose how its processes work. Britain may use a higher standard of proof to trigger a review than the US, which would explain the carefully crafted language that British officials use (they have seen “no evidence” or have “no reason to believe” that more civilians had been harmed). Britain’s coalition partners told the BBC in 2020 that other possible incidents were flagged with the Royal Air Force, but the RAF concluded there was no evidence of harm to civilians. US officials said the British were “looking for certainty” where there was none.

Mark Lancaster, the then-armed forces minister (and now a member of the House of Lords), told the House of Commons Defense Committee in April 2019 that “it is not our position that there has been only a single civilian casualty as a result of our military action. What we are saying is that we have evidence of only a single, or what we believe to have been a single, civilian casualty. That is a rather different position.”

In 2021, Airwars filed a Freedom of Information request in an attempt to find out what happened on 26 March 2018 – according to the US, no coalition strikes were conducted in the area that fit the description, and none of the Syrian organizations that reliably monitor airstrikes recorded it – and to understand how the British military assesses evidence of harm to civilians from its airstrikes. The MoD rejected the request on grounds of national security, but Airwars challenged their refusal on grounds of public interest. In November 2023 Airwars took the MoD to court. The tribunal’s ruling was expected late last year but continues to be postponed.

At the tribunal, Alexander Oliver, an MoD official from the department responsible for overseeing strikes during the campaign against IS, was asked if the UK uses the same process for assessing harm to civilians as the US. He said only that they use the same process for “recording” all airstrikes, and then “recording publicly” if a civilian was killed. Part of the tribunal took place in private so the MoD could present classified evidence. When asked if he knew what standard of proof the military used to make decisions about civilian casualties, Oliver said he did not have that information. Asked if he meant he could not answer the question in the open, Oliver confirmed that he did not know the answer.

This is a remarkable admission. The standard of proof would determine which cases reach the MoD for review. As the civilian body responsible for exercising democratic control over the armed forces, the MoD would presumably want to know how many suspected cases never reach their desks, and the strength of the evidence used to assess the ones that do.

Then again, perhaps not. Standards of proof are not neutral features of public institutions. They are political: what counts as evidence and who must prove what to whom is always bound up in questions of power. A higher standard of proof means the MoD has effectively given the military the benefit of the doubt. The onus is then placed on civilians in Iraq and Syria to prove that they were harmed to a high degree of certainty – next to impossible unless the military were properly researching the effects of its strikes.

There are always trade-offs. A lower standard of proof might mean more false positives, while a higher standard might mean more cases slip through the cracks, and bad actors and harmful practices persist undetected. The approach that an oversight body chooses depends on what it wants to know. This is why standards of proof tend to fall when an institution loses credibility. Following recent high-profile cases of police violence, for example, the requirement for bringing cases of police misconduct fell from “beyond reasonable doubt” to “balance of probabilities.”

This is not the first time that Britain’s defense establishment has had trouble with counting. The tribunal’s decision could also shed light on what (if anything) has changed since the Chilcot Inquiry into the UK’s role in the Iraq war. John Chilcot’s report revealed a host of problems with the way the British defense establishment handled information, the weight it gave to evidence and the inferences it passed off as fact.

The inquiry also found that the government “has a responsibility to make every reasonable effort to understand the likely and actual effects of its military actions on civilians” and should have done so during Iraq. But Adam Ingram, Tony Blair’s armed forces minister, told the inquiry that establishing these facts would not have changed what happened on the ground. “It would have confirmed what everyone knew, but it wouldn’t have led to a solution.”

But what did everyone know? On the eve of the 2003 invasion of Iraq, Tony Blair told Parliament that Saddam Hussein’s regime would be responsible for “many, many more deaths even in one year than we will be in any conflict.” In the face of mounting evidence that the coalition’s military activities were killing thousands of Iraqi civilians, Blair publicly stuck to his line.

Behind the scenes, however, things seemed less certain. In 2004, Blair wrote to cabinet colleagues asking how many civilians had been killed in Iraq. “The figure of 15,000 is out there as a fact – is it accurate?” he asked. “Accuracy” became the basis on which Blair’s government rejected estimates produced by media reports, civil society, and academic researchers. Senior officials from civilian and military branches of government repeatedly told Blair that producing “accurate” figures was simply not possible and should be avoided. “‘This is not merely our public line but our genuine judgment,” an MoD official wrote in October 2004.

But as the extent of violent civilian deaths across Iraq became impossible to deny, the government adopted a new argument. Civilians were dying in Iraq, Blair admitted in 2006, but they were being killed by “terrorists,” not by coalition soldiers. In private, officials looked for data that would support this claim while also countering research that suggested excess deaths may have reached 100,000.

The politics of counting those killed in the war became so distasteful to the government that officials resorted to making dubious legal arguments against collecting data at all. An official from the FCO wrote that Britain had no obligation under international humanitarian law to understand how many were actually killed so long as risks to civilians were assessed before an operation. In effect, refusing to accept any civilian casualty figures became yet another form of unjustified certainty (an “unknown known,” as Stephen Colbert put it in a conversation with Donald Rumsfeld – something we know, but choose to ignore). If reliable figures did not exist, then everyone’s counts could be wrong, and there was still a world in which Britain could plausibly claim that things were not so bad. Or later – as the extent of civilian suffering became impossible to deny – that Britain was not to blame.

This sort of thinking was supposed to have been overturned after the Iraq war. Yet two decades on, we still know next to nothing about how Britain makes its assessments of civilian casualties. Investigations by Airwars found that many more civilians, including children, were killed and disabled at sites hit by British airstrikes in the war against IS. The families were not contacted by the British armed forces or the British government. As Airwars says, this suggests they have not made “every reasonable effort” to understand the impact of their military operations or learn from past mistakes. Despite the trust that was lost during the Iraq war, and the lengthy, expensive public inquiry justified as necessary to rebuild public trust, the British military still expects to be given the benefit of the doubt when it comes to civilian casualties.

Near the end of the hearing in November 2023, the MoD’s witness was asked if he had confidence in the procedures for assessing harm to civilians from British airstrikes. Oliver said he did. When the appellant’s lawyer asked him why, he said only that he had been involved in the MoD’s military operations overseas for more than a decade, and there were many experienced people who worked in the department. When asked why the public should share his confidence, Oliver repeated that there are many experienced people who work in the department. Asking, in other words, for the British public – and indeed the families of Iraqis and Syrians killed by British airstrikes – to give him and his colleagues the benefit of the doubt.

(London Review of Books)

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