Battle of the Titans

Though I was only nine years old, I still remember how overjoyed my parents were back in November of 1960 when the votes had been tallied and John Fitzgerald Kennedy had squeaked to victory as President on the strength of 118,000 votes (though he clearly won the electoral vote), defeating Vice President Richard M. Nixon. My parents were born into the Great Depression and came of age during World War 2. For them it was a ceremonial passing of the torch; Kennedy was the first American president of their generation. 

Our middle-aged kids may get the same opportunity this November if the current governors of two of the largest, most powerful states of California and Florida survive the treacherous political waters of the next year to top their respective presidential tickets. Both Gavin Newsom and Ron DeSantis (10 years apart in their late and early 40s, respectively) may publicly deny their ambitions (with fingers crossed) for the government’s top spot, at least at this moment, but careful observers note that each one speaks increasingly of national issues, testing the waters. And their regular sniping at one another about whose state is better off under his leadership is an increasingly heated regular news feature as Newsom asks the universe, “Would you really want California to be like Florida?” countered by DeSantis’ “Would you really want Florida to be like California?”

There have been some recent high-profile differences between the two states. California is preparing for (and funding) an expected avalanche of abortion seekers as 22 states seek to sharply limit or outright deny abortions following the recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling overturning Roe, while Florida, one of 22 states poised to either sharply reduce or outlaw abortion, just suffered a defeat in its own Florida Supreme Court. Judge John C. Cooper ruled last month that Florida’s request to reduce gestation periods from 15 to 6 weeks to obtain an abortion was “unconstitutional in that it violates the privacy provision of the Florida Constitution.” DeSantis was pissed off but has been careful to avoid throwing his lot in with the “Never Abortion” crowd and its critical votes. And that group itself suffered a setback last week when a 10-year-old rape victim in Ohio was denied an abortion and had to travel to a neighboring state for the procedure. America was collectively horrified, and you could almost hear the pro-life undercurrents in the ensuing very public firestorm: “We don’t believe in abortion, sure, but in that fourth grader’s case…”

Then there was the whole pandemic masking competition. Absent tea leaves or credible soothsayers, governors were pretty much on their own to make decisions sure to be unpopular, whatever the stance. California jumped in early with strict masking requirements, while Florida, citing harm to business, eliminated initial masking requirements early on, resulting in major infection spikes. So in the clarity of hindsight, who was right?

California is the most populous state with 39,747,267 people, Florida is the third most populous with 21,646,155, and Texas is in the middle. California has logged more confirmed COVID deaths than Florida (10,298,922 vs. 6,590,900), and, aside from the masking issue, as of mid-year 2021 California had dispensed 64-percent more doses than Florida (10,298,922 and 6,590,900 doses, respectively), an unsurprising difference given their respective population differences. But, when it came to COVID deaths for the same period, Florida had many more deaths per million of population than the much more populous California: 3,514.29 vs. 2,354.29, respectively. So you be the judge…

DeSantis loves to crow about the influx of Americans from other states, and Florida is growing fast while California is slightly losing population. In a recent New Yorker profile of DeSantis (if you want to read the whole thing set aside two or three undisturbed hours) was quoted as saying that “The only state I haven’t heard from is Utah.” You can’t fool those canny Mormons…

From as early as my junior-high days my mom told me that if you scratch the surface of any issue, “It all comes down to money.” This Florida “migration” as it’s officially known to demographers, is just another sad example of the national takeover by one-percenters. Even the Wall Street Journal, the actual Bible of the rich, has admitted it, probably with some reluctance. Following the release of a newly released IRS report, the WSJ reported that “More wealth is moving into Florida than any other state by far.” In the most recent year (covering 2020 income), taxpayers with a net total of $23.7 billion (with a “b”) in adjusted gross income migrated to Florida. That’s because even the rich have to declare some income that can’t be either eliminated by tax write-offs tailored just for them or squirreled away in offshore accounts, and in Florida there is no income tax. Zero. There are other tax advantages for the rich, too. Research by the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy ranked Florida’s tax system #48 in tax inequality. It’s a “low tax” state for only the rich. Those earning less than $18,700 per year contribute 12.7-percent of their incomes to state and local taxes; those with incomes above $548,700 contribute just 2.3-percent. 

DeSantis knows his base. Rich people vote and most care a lot about their money. They don’t care so much about public education, because their kids don’t go to public schools; they don’t care about health-care costs because premiums and copays will never touch them; and they support voter suppression because they want to keep things just the way they are - and are willing to contribute handsomely to politicians who agree with them. Why pay income tax?

A lot can happen between now and next year’s presidential election. It could well be that neither of these rivals will run, at least not against each other at the top of their respective parties’ presidential tickets. But however disillusioned we may be, however cynical at what we’ve become as a nation, there is an existential difference between the two men who so closely resemble the values and mores of their states. If they do run against each other it will be a powerful sign of what direction Americans want their country to take.