Mendocino County Today: Saturday, August 6, 2022

Near Normal | Junior Livestock Auction | AVFFA Ribbons | 8th Grade | Gabrielle Thomas | Boonfire Caspar | Drought News | William Westfall | More Curtailments | Chow Quon | Help Ellie | Elma Guise | Ask Chamise | Deirdre Lamb | JDSF Victory | Daniel Milliken | Neily Interview | Bart Wiki | Sordid Feathers | Logger Cabin | Shackman Convicted | Yesterday's Catch | DDT Dumping | Chariot Pull | Ukraine | Chin Extension | Fact Checkers | PR Department | Glance Ahead | UPS Conditioning | Last Week | Lincoln Memorial

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES are forecast to return to near normal today continuing through early next week. Typical summer coastal weather is expected with periods of coastal low clouds during the nights and mornings and partial sun each afternoon. (NWS)

RIBBONS, RIBBONS, RIBBONS

Dear Anderson Valley Community,

One of the best things about being a Superintendent is being invited to see your students EXCEL. I assure you, our Anderson Valley Junior and Senior High School students are excelling under the tutelage of Beth Swhela, our agricultural teacher.

Today, I had a crazy day. It started early with minutes for the bond oversight committee, a bunch of correspondence, lobbying a shell-shocked statewide lobbyist with a diatribe about my explicit needs for facility funding, posting with Vero a complicated agenda to get our bond funded, but then came the best part of the day… I got to go to the fair. 

I was probably the only old lady in the agricultural pens in a cotton shell dress and high heels, but I was there to see Anderson Valley. And boy, was I glad I went. You need to know what these kids did, you need to know what these students, some of whom were new to the show, walked away with. Ribbons, ribbons, ribbons….

These kids showed up, stood up, and did an incredible job. The quality of their show animals is unparalleled. And that is due to the tutelage of Beth Swhela, an amazing agricultural teacher. I've said it before, and I'll say it again. If I could make a charter FFA School, I would do it in a minute. Those kids have an amazing work ethic. They can get up in front of a crowd and present. They know content. They are collaborative. They are respectful, and don't get into any behavioral issues. And they DO THEIR WORK. A lot of that is because somebody like Beth Swehla takes four nights out of her life to spend four nights in a trailer at the local fair, so these kids get the experience. Amy Burger, one of our paraeducators, and a parent of Nathan, is there to support the showing, not only shepherding her student, but the group to make sure the kids have an amazing time. The other students’ parents are also there. Do you see? This is how we create great and innovative learners. This is how we create successful students. This is a real-world community experience. If your student is not involved in FFA, you need to think about that. I urge you to explore this program. There are convention opportunities at the Statewide level and the Anderson Valley Education Foundation is sending students to the National Convention. This is Expectation, Excellence, Public Speaking, Performance, and Work Ethic in one package. I don't know how to express my gratitude to Beth Swhela. Time after time, she takes time out of her life for numerous nights on endand does what she needs to do to create an experience. It's great and transformative for kids…. I hope somebody in your life did that for you.

Go to the fair and celebrate these kids. 

Congratulations to: Carmen Malfavon, 12th Grade; Nathan Burger, 12th Grade; Samantha Espinoz, Grade 9; Jose Alvarez, Grade 8.

Sincerely yours,

Louise Simson, Superintendent 

Anderson Valley Unified School District

PS, The Mendocino County Junior Livestock Livestock Auction is happening Saturday, August 6th, 10am. Our sale order is: Jose Alvarez Magana #14; Nathan Burger #24; Samantha Espinoza #42; Carmen Malfavon #136. You can sign up to be a buyer or to do Add ons online at redwoodempirefair.com.

THE WOMAN WHO FUNDED ALEX THOMAS PLAZA

by Mike Geniella

Gabrielle Hall Thomas, matriarch of a family with deep roots in the agricultural history of the Ukiah Valley, died August 3 at the Sequoias in San Francisco where she lived in recent years. She was 99.

‘Gay’ Thomas was an informed individual of accomplishment and poise. Her graciousness, and finely honed wit allowed her to easily engage with others, at family and social events and in public discussions of community importance.

It was Gay Thomas’ commitment to civic affairs that earned her widespread public recognition. In 1995, Gay Thomas donated substantial funding for the development of a plaza in downtown Ukiah that was named in honor of her late husband, Alex R. Thomas Jr.

Gay Thomas was a charter member of the Mendocino College Board of Trustees, and a two-time member of the Mendocino County Grand Jury. She served on the first general plan steering committee for the city of Ukiah.

Gay Thomas was an original member of the Ukiah Parks and Recreation Commission, and she especially delighted in the fact that the beloved ‘rocket ship’ at Todd Grove Park, a favorite for generations of local children, was installed during her tenure.

Gay Thomas graduated in economics from Dominican College in San Rafael.

After marrying Alex R. Thomas Jr. and moving to Ukiah, Gay Thomas became an active member of St. Mary’s Parish. She sang in the church choir, participated in the Ladies League, and actively supported St. Mary’s School after its founding in the 1950s. Gay Thomas was a charter donor to the St. Mary’s School Foundation, and she remained a longtime supporter of the school’s annual ‘Mardi Gras’, a legendary local fundraiser that continues today.

Gay Thomas was born on New Year’s Eve in 1922 at St. Mary’s Hospital in Red Bluff to John Hall and Anna Flannagan. Her father was a newspaper editor and publisher.

Gay Thomas and her older sister Mary Hall Prout remained close throughout their lives, and they enjoyed sharing stories of their childhood, and had many adventures together as adults.

For all of her civic and social attributes, what meant most to Gay Thomas was her family. “Her children are her testament” was a creed she lived by.

Gay Thomas had two daughters who predeceased her: Mary Catherine Thomas and Anne Irene Thomas Ito (Arthur Ito).

She is survived by four sons and their wives: Tom Thomas and Mary Leittem, John Thomas and Wendy Mae McCallum, Stephen Thomas and Diana York, and Daniel Thomas and Becky Erickson.

In addition, Gay Thomas is survived by seventeen grandchildren and nine great-grandchildren. There also are numerous cousins in the Thomas, Johnson, Golden, Cunningham, Gannon, Hall, and Flannagan families.

A celebration of life is set for 10 a.m. Tuesday at St. Mary’s Catholic Church. Burial will follow in the Thomas family plot at the Russian River Cemetery.

MENDO DROUGHT NEWS

The late rains helped. So did the moderate early summer temperatures. But after three consecutive years of abnormally low rainfall, Mendocino County remains in a severe drought. So what is the status of water in the County? Mendocino County Water News asked water managers to provide an update.

Fort Bragg: John Smith, Director of Public Works, reported that the late rains pushed back water conservation restrictions by several weeks. Nonetheless, at its July 25 meeting, the City Council implemented mandatory Stage 1 water conservation restrictions, as current water supply conditions started showing the effects of a third year of drought. The Stage 1 conservation targets a citywide 5% - 10% goal reduction in seasonal water usage. The Noyo River has dropped 1.5 cubic feet per second over the past week and the city’s two other water sources are very low compared to previous years. The combined source flows provide approximately 4.1 million gallons per day. 

Mendocino: A Stage 4 Water Shortage Emergency remains in effect in Mendocino and the Mendocino City Community Services District’s Water Shortage Contingency Plan is active. Details about the plan’s requirements can be found at https://www.mccsd.com/.

Unincorporated Coast: Water manager Larry Miller wrote that “of the eight public water systems (he) operates on the Mendocino Coast (from south of Albion to just south of Ft. Bragg), none have had to buy water.”

City of Ukiah: The City of Ukiah has produced approximately 220 million gallons of recycled water so far this season. "The recycled water offsets demand on the Russian River and Lake Mendocino," noted Sean White, Director of Water and Sewer. The city will be installing a self-serve recycled water facility in the next few weeks available for water trucks as well as private citizens. It also just completed rebuilding Well 8 to improve both production and efficiency.

Brooktrails: Brooktrails has begun reaching out to customers who are exceeding the maximum allowable monthly water usage cap of 9,000 gallons. Tamara Alaniz, Community Services District (CSD) General Manager, said that the only source of water supply for Brooktrails is rain and runoff and the CSD may impose physical restrictors in water lines and/or penalty fees on customers who use more than the maximum monthly amount. She also noted that “this third year of drought is a critical time for customers to manage their water use and conserve our limited supplies through to the next rain.” A good reminder to all of us!

Please keep the Water News up to date about your water situation. Email us at mcwa@mendocinocounty.org with your local conditions.

* * *

Russian River Update: Additional Curtailments Likely as Potter Valley Flows Reduced

More news emerged last week in the ever-changing status of water availability in the Russian River Watershed. On July 27, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approved Pacific Gas and Electric’s (PGE) flow variance request for the Potter Valley Project (PVP), reducing flows from the Project to the East Fork Russian River to 5 cubic feet per second (cfs) with the potential to increase to 25 cfs depending on storage in Lake Pillsbury.

The 5 cfs represents a dramatic reduction in water deliveries: since May 15, releases from the Potter Valley Project have been 75 cfs. The 5 cfs target has several caveats. Potter Valley Irrigation District will continue to receive water but only on a demand-based schedule and not to exceed 50 cfs. In addition, PG&E has the discretion to limit deliveries in order to maintain Lake Pillsbury above 30,000 acre feet through September 15. No buffer (extra) water will be released to prevent flows from dropping below 5 cfs. The variance takes effect immediately. 

On July 28, the State Water Resources Control Board’s Division of Water Rights posted an updated Curtailment Status List on the Russian River Drought Response webpage that took effect on August 1, 2022. In addition, in response to FERC’s approval of the variance, the Division stated that they “will closely monitor flow conditions, but staff expect to post a revised Curtailment Status List in early August reflecting the reduced water availability in the watershed. Further curtailments are expected at that time.” One ramification of this turn of events is that the State Water Board is expected to pause the much heralded and ground-breaking Voluntary Water Sharing Program that enabled Russian River water rights holders to voluntarily reduce water usage and share available water. A public meeting on the Volunteer Water Sharing Program will be held on August 8 at 3:30. An agenda and Zoom link will be posted on the Water Sharing Program page.

(Mendo Water Agency Presser)

NEW RUSSIAN RIVER CURTAILMENTS IMPOSED As Sonoma County Officials Warn Of Worsening Drought

by Mary Callahan

Several hundred ranchers, grape growers, tribes, landowners and community water suppliers, including the city of Healdsburg, were barred Friday from exercising some of their rights to water from the Russian River amid tightening supplies in an unrelenting drought officials say is likely to get worse.

The third round of curtailments imposed by the State Water Resource Control Board was prompted by drastic reductions in Eel River water diversions, which are critical to boosting diminishing storage in Lake Mendocino, which in turn feeds the Russian River.

The water board also formally suspended a new voluntary sharing arrangement that allowed some of those with older, “senior” water rights to share water with those whose rights have been curtailed. According to state water officials, there is no longer enough water available to make the system work.

During a virtual town hall on the drought hosted by Sonoma County on Thursday, local officials underscored the grim possibility that current circumstances could, in retrospect, practically look like the good ol’ days by next year.

“The bottom line, up front and again, is we need to continue conserving water,” said Supervisor James Gore, chairman of the Board of Supervisors. “Water saved now is water we can use later.”

Climate indications signal that another dry winter may lie ahead, at least until January, adding urgency to the need to conserve and prepare for what Sonoma County Emergency Management Director Christopher Godley described as “a very slowly unfolding but very significant disaster for our county.”

“We think there’s a good chance that this multiyear drought we’re in will extend now into 2023,” Godley said, “and of course every year gets worse than the one before, and so next year we could have more significant impacts than the ones we’re currently facing.”

With total rainfall over three years of drought already short about one whole winter’s worth, the region already has a deficit from which it will take years to recover, he said.

Groundwater aquifers need to recharge, storage reservoirs and natural water bodies need to replenish, and drought-stricken vegetation needs time to recover.

Individual wells and water supplies also are expected to be at greater risk of failing without significant rain, Godley said, despite what’s so far been a relatively mild summer.

A Sonoma County drought task force, whose members represent local cities, water districts, groundwater sustainability districts, resource agencies and others, is being doubled in size this month, Godley said.

It’s also expected to take on a more operational posture, ensuring contingency plans are in place for large and small water systems and developing risk and assessments and long-term plans to ensure drinking water solutions are identified in the event of long-term drought and failed systems.

That includes identifying resources, like grant opportunities through state and federal agencies, Godley said.

“We think there’s going to be a need to really bring more solutions to folks that are suffering from drought, especially as we start to see water systems and wells impacted,” he said.

A task force that has mostly been working to understand the scope of the problem will need to take action, he said.

In the meantime, Lake Mendocino’s storage level has dropped by about 1,000 acre feet, or 2%, over the past week, thanks to reduced flows from the Eel River through Pacific Gas and Electric Co.’s disabled Potter Valley power plant, which discharges water into the East Fork Russian River and on into the reservoir near Ukiah.

Philip Dutton, senior engineer with the state water board’s Division of Water Rights, said diversions had dropped from 75 or 80 cubic feet per second to 5 cfs under authorization federal regulators granted to PG&E last week to help preserve Eel River water storage in Lake Pillsbury.

The state board previously curtailed rights for 260 users and reduced rights for 326 others. It now has curtailed rights for 671 users, about two thirds of them in the upper river watershed upstream of Healdsburg and Dry Creek, where releases from Lake Sonoma supplement river flows.

Some water right holders have multiple claims. So, though nearly 1,000 water rights are restricted, fewer entities are affected.

Healdsburg, for instance, holds six water rights, all but one of them curtailed, setting the community up for significant conservation demands, as was the case last year, as well.

The city has some recent good news, however, in the award of a more than $6 million federal grant through the Building Resilient Infrastructure and Communities program to apply toward an estimated $8.6 million aquifer recharge and well recovery project aimed at increasing city water supply by perhaps 60 million gallons a year.

The project still requires exploratory drilling but offers hope of using at least one of three prospective city-owned sites to drill very deep wells for injection of water to be banked underground when it is plentiful, said Patrick Fuss, principal engineer for the city of Healdsburg.

“The city’s water supply right now is solely from surface water,” subject to curtailment during dry summers, Fuss said.

Completed, the new project “would be a big improvement, given our situation,” he said.

In the meantime, Windsor is providing all Sonoma County residents access to the fill station through which its citizens can obtain up to 300 gallons of free, recycled wastewater a trip for use in outdoor irrigation.

There’s paperwork involved and limitations on how the water’s used — no bathing, drinking or cooking with it, for example — but it’s one way to keep plants alive without using potable water that urgently needs to be conserved, officials said.

(Santa Rosa Press Democrat)

A LITTLE HELP FOR ELLIE, PLEASE

I am desperate!

From: Ellie Green <ellieg@mcn.org>

PLEASE. I'm 88 & disabled. I just got home with three new stents in my heart, after seven days in the hospital! For a week, I have my darling daughter with me to help, but she FLEW from Portland, Oregon, to Santa Rosa, hired a car & drove me all the way home from the hospital in St. Helena.

This was on Tuesday. But I NEED HELP with laundry, shopping & cleaning my house! PLEASE if you are a care-giver, wouldn't you like more hours? PLEASE phone me: (707) 964-2710 afternoons or evenings. I'm in Fort Bragg near the hospital. 

Ellie Green

Fort Bragg

NORM THURSTON (commenting on Auditor-Tax Collector Chamise Cubbison’s response to the Supervisors…)

A message to the Board of Supervisors: If you want to get some factual information on the County's financial systems, you should talk to the one person who knows the most about those systems — Chamise Cubbison. Whoever is providing you with financial information now is not doing a very good job of it. To Chamise, I suggest you wander down to the Board chambers when they are discussing fiscal matters. Your presence may motivate our 5 supervisors to be more thoughtful before making unsubstantiated comments.

(Ed note: Norm Thurston was a long-time senior auditor staffer and after that was Sheriff Tom Allman’s budget manager.)

JACKSON STATE FOREST PROTESTERS DECLARE VICTORY

The Forest Protectors of Jackson Demonstration State Forest (JDSF) are declaring victory after the California State Board of Forestry placed an indefinite “hold” on all operations, pending Government to Government engagement. “From the very beginning our steadfast demand was for a Moratorium on the whole of JDSF to make room for government-to-government Co-management. We did it!” said long time Earth First! organizer, Naomi Wagner. 

For the past year and a half this 47,000 acre publicly owned forest has been the center of an intense struggle against CalFire’s outdated management plan. The public campaign began in early 2021. The price of lumber had risen dramatically and CalFire had accelerated logging, targeting the most valuable large second growth redwood trees. The community became alarmed when CalFire approved a timber harvest plan close to the tiny coastal town of Caspar. With logging due to start there in mid-April, letters, phone calls and petitions decrying the impending cut were sent to elected officials and CalFire without success. 

On Friday April 9, 2021 a tree sit went up in a beautiful second growth redwood marked for cut. The “Mama Tree” was occupied by a local High School student. On the following Monday, more than fifty locals came out to logging road 500 in Jackson State Forest in the wee hours of the morning to protect the trees. Many were ready to be arrested. All participants believed that in this time of absolute climate crisis, it is unconscionable to cut the old Redwood and Douglas Fir trees in California’s largest publicly owned State Forest. The old redwoods don’t burn easily and are the world’s best at carbon sequestration. From that day on Forest Protectors did daily pre dawn reconnaissance and blockaded gates to the area. 

The whirlwind Campaign to Save Jackson State Forest grew exponentially, with rallies organized by activists and youth in Ft. Bragg, e-bikers monitoring logging plans and stopping them, an Action Camp open daily to educate Jackson visitors, activists who slept in the woods to stop pre-dawn crews arriving to cut, road blockades, numerous all-day nonviolence trainings and many press releases. A People’s Moratorium was established. 

On June 15th and 16th, with CalFire personnel leading them in before daylight, loggers started taking down trees in the Caspar timber harvest plan. Protectors placed themselves between the trees and live chainsaws for two days. Logging was then paused by CalFire on the Caspar 500 plan. CalFire’s eyes turned inland to Chamberlain Creek, Red Tail and Soda Gulch, three previously approved timber harvest plans slated for cutting. Direct action moved inland.

To maintain the People’s Moratorium, blockades and protests continued into the fall and winter, protecting the trees and preventing further desecration of threatened Indigenous cultural and sacred sites. Faced with growing public outrage CalFire declared a “Hold” in operations. The State also declined to put new timber sales out for bid this year and allocated $10,000,000 to the JDSF budget for non-timber production use. 

Last November Governor Newsom directed all State Lands Agencies to enter into Co-management agreements with Indigenous Tribes whose traditional lands are occupied by the State. Jackson is the ancestral territory of the Pomo and Coast Yuki Tribes, many of whose ancestors fled to the woods to escape genocide at the hands of State sanctioned militias in the mid-1800’s. The forest was once a major inland-coastal trading route, now recognized as a “cultural landscape”. Statement of Administration Policy Native American Ancestral Lands September 25, 2020 

JDSF was established in 1947 under a Mandate to produce high quality lumber products. Forest Protectors envision an entirely new Mandate for the forest as a Preserve based on traditional ecological knowledge, cutting edge climate change science, and the principles of reverence, restoration, and recreation. 

“We stood our ground and refused all of CalFire’s so-called offers of compromise”, said long-time Earth First! activist Anna Marie Stenberg. “After sixteen months of non-stop direct action we have achieved a moratorium and the Coyote Valley Band of Pomo Indians and the State are in ongoing government-to-government negotiations.”

Ever vigilant, Protectors promise to return to the forest if logging resumes.

(Redwood National Earth First!)

WHERE ARE THEY, JIMMY? Take 2

Interview with Lisa M. Neily

by Monica Huettl 

Lisa M. Neily is the daughter of the late David Neily, whose remains were found in May 2020, and whose cause of death remains unsolved. Lisa’s brother Ryan, and their father, lived on James Denoyer’s horse ranch in Westport, where David Neily was last seen. A letter from Lisa was published in the May 11, 2022 AVA, pleading for help in solving her father’s case. Like many in Mendocino County, I followed the seizure of Denoyer’s horses by Animal Control in December 2005 with great interest. 

At that time, I was writing the monthly newsletter for the Redwood Riders riding club in Redwood Valley, and in that capacity, I had received the initial email asking for volunteers to help with the seized horses, and all the subsequent emails detailing the auction sale of the horses, and Denoyer’s horse abuse trial. The trial ended in a hung jury and there was no retrial. 

Separate from the horse abuse allegations, Bruce Anderson published a shocking article on August 1, 2007, ‘Where Are They Jimmy?’ pointing out that two men had gone missing from the same property where the horses were seized. One of them was David Neily and the other was Donald JC Cavanaugh (whose remains have not been found). 

Q: To get an idea of your family background, your dad had 5 children with two different women?

A: His previous wife Alice had three children Brad, Scott, and Darla. My mother Betty had Ryan and me.

Q: Where were you born? Did you grow up with your dad around?

A: I was born in Santa Cruz. Dad and Mom divorced when I was 8. Ryan moved in with Dad after high school.

Q: How often did you normally see him?

A: After my parents divorced when I was 8, I didn’t see him much. But once Mom got settled as a single mom, I saw him more, but not much.

Q: Did your mother remarry?

A: When I was in 6th grade Mom married Howard Hayes. She went through a divorce from him when I was a senior in high school. So, I decided to go into the Army.

Q: What is your education, work history, marriages?

A: I served 9 years in the Army, 3 active, 6 reserve. Then I went to college and received a BFA in graphic design. I was married in 1994. Divorced in 2004. Married again in 2005. Lillian was born 2006, and Landon was born 2010. His middle name is David, after Dad. Unfortunately, Dad never knew I was pregnant with Lillian before he went missing. I didn’t have the chance to tell him.

Q: Did your dad ever “disappear” from your life prior to 2006?

A: Not really. He would get off his meds. Police would pick him up, admit him to a hospital. Then he would call family to pick him up. It became a pattern.

Q: Were you close to your father? 

A: I wasn’t close like Ryan. But Dad gave me all his belongings many years before 2005, when I got married for the second time. He trusted me. I have drawings by him throughout the years. I wear a ring he made and gave me on my 16th birthday. I never take it off. He made one for Mom, which I plan to give my daughter on her 16th birthday. I feel I was close to Dad in a different way than Ryan.

Q: Did you actually live in Mendocino County when your dad was here? 

A: I did live there for three months after I went through a divorce in Southern California in 2004. Ryan suggested I move in with him [in a trailer on Denoyer’s property in Westport], so I did. I was there from October 2004 to January 2005. I was there when Dad was there. I bought him clothes for Christmas 2004. While I lived with Ryan, one of Denoyer’s horses fell off a cliff onto the road. There was an electrical fence but Denoyer wouldn’t fix it. I remember, I think it had to do with a battery. Ryan screamed but he told me to not come up the hill to see it.

Q: What did you do while you were there? 

A: I attempted to get work but it was really a dead-end place for me. So, I moved to Colorado because my step sister lived there.

Q: What were your impressions of life on the Denoyer property? How many trailers or houses were there?

A: My brother’s trailer was the only trailer that I saw on the property. Further up the hill was a barn where Denoyer lived. I never walked up the hill to see it. At one point, around Christmas 2004, Denoyer took Ryan, Dad and me out to dinner. Denoyer seemed normal at the time, nothing stood out. Ron Baumeister lived on the property and he seemed scary to me. He was unkempt, nervous and twitchy. 

Q: Did Ryan discuss with you the trip to Illinois with Denoyer to pick up Denoyer’s uncle, Donald Cavanaugh and the horses?

A: He mentioned it after the fact, and it’s described in detail in his notarized statement to Ms. Houston [Deputy DA who prosecuted the horse abuse trial], which I have a copy of. 

Reporter’s Note: Ryan’s notarized statement of March 24, 2008, which he sent to Assistant DA Katherine Houston after the trial ended with a hung jury, and in advance of what he thought would be the retrial, offers incredibly detailed evidence of the horse abuse and the elder abuse of Cavanaugh. Here is an excerpt from his cover letter.

“Attached is my statement about what I saw regarding James Denoyer’s handling of his horses, his treatment of his uncle, JC Cavanaugh and the events surrounding the disappearance of my father, David V. Neily. I have written this because no one took a written statement from me, not even the Sheriff’s office.”

Not only did the Sheriff and the DA seemingly ignore Ryan’s offer of believable eyewitness testimony, he was turned away from the courthouse during the horse abuse trial, prevented from entering the courtroom. This is verified by court records, in this excerpt from Judge Ronald Brown’s Minute Order of July 18, 2007. “Attorney Turer informs the court that Mr. Neely [sic] is in and around the courthouse and states his concerns for the record.”

Q: How did the disappearance of your dad affect your life? 

A: It just kills me every day that Dad never knew I was pregnant with Lillian. But I made sure my son had his middle name, David. Dad would have loved my children so much. It really breaks my heart when I think about it. That is why I have so needed someone help to tell my story because I get too upset.

Q: How frequently had you been in touch with your dad in the year prior to his disappearance?

A: It was off and on with phone calls. But the last time I saw Dad was at my wedding, July 22, 2005 in Colorado. Dad gave me away, along with my stepdad Lou. Before that Dad was in Mendocino County with Ryan.

Q: After you moved out, did Ryan ever tell you he was afraid for his own safety? Was he worried about your father’s safety?

A: He was worried about his safety after Dad disappeared. Ryan had moved away from Denoyer's property. Dad had moved to Albion prior to his disappearance, but had gone back to Westport to retrieve his things. After not hearing from Dad, Ryan went to Westport to check on him. Ron Baumeister told Ryan that Dad had driven away, but Ryan saw both of Dad’s cars there, and Dad’s dog, Justice. This made him suspicious and he filed a missing person report.

Q: How did you find out your dad was missing?

A: Ryan called me. But he didn’t file the missing person report right away because our dad had previously gone off and we didn’t hear from him. But he would normally get picked up by sheriffs and he would call family to pick him up.

Q: What did the Sheriff’s office do during the missing person search?

A: Sheriff’s Lt. Crabb emailed on July 28, 2006 that four search teams from the Bay Area with cadaver dogs had searched Denoyer’s property without a hit. My theory is that maybe the dogs didn’t find him because Dad was actually moved to where his remains were located. Gunshots were heard. Did the Sheriffs search for bullets with a metal detector? And they only searched Denoyer’s property. They did not search the BLM land next to his property. Crabb’s email said there had been no activity on Dad’s bank account but that checks were being deposited to his credit union account. He spoke to a person living on the property, I believe this was Baumeister. Crabb wanted to bring him in for questioning using a CVSA (voice stress lie detector). I don’t think this was ever done. Ron Baumeister passed away in June 2020.

Q: What did you do during the search (first few months)?

A: When Dad disappeared, I was 8 months pregnant with my first child. It was then Ryan and I told our step brothers and sister about Dad, and that it when it all went to hell! 

Q: What do you mean it went to hell? 

A: After my stepbrothers got involved, both they and the Sheriff’s Department stopped communicating with me. The step siblings did not want to say that foul play was suspected. The Sheriff’s Department told us to vote among the siblings on who the family point of contact should be. Brad, Scott, and my stepsister Darla out-voted Ryan and me because it was 3 against 2, even though they had not been as close to Dad as Ryan and I had been. Brad became the contact person for the Sheriff’s Department. Brad and Scott came to Mendocino County to take possession of Dad’s vehicles. 

I wanted the vehicles released to Ryan, not to my stepbrothers, and put in storage so the family could look through them. I would have liked to have Dad’s eyeglasses and newspaper that were found in the car, as keepsakes. I asked the Sheriff’s Department for an itemized list of what was in the vehicles several times, but have never received one. When Ryan filed the missing person report, he was never asked by the Sheriffs to view the contents of the vehicles, which may have provided clues. The vehicles were released to Brad and Scott in September 2006. No finger prints were ever taken because the Sheriffs said the vehicles were exposed to the elements too long before they were seized.

Dad didn’t have a will. But he trusted me with all his belongings, but that didn’t seem to matter with the Sheriffs. I held the pink slips to his vehicles that were released to Brad and Scott, although the pink slips were not in my name. Ever since Brad sent Dad’s ashes to me in December 2021 he hasn’t cared about the investigation, as far as I know, he hasn’t contacted me since.

Q: What communications did you receive from the Sheriff’s office?

A: Ryan filed a missing person report on May 24, 2006 in Fort Bragg with Officer Michael Davis. I find it odd that the Sheriff’s Department never asked Ryan about Donald Cavanaugh, who went missing from the same property in March 2005, when Ryan reported our dad missing in May 2006. The case bounced around a lot. After Officer Davis, it was turned over to Officer Walker, then Detective Robert Crabb, then to Detective Schnitzius, then to Sgt. Gregory Van Patten, then to Detective Whiteaker, then to Detective Joseph Comer. Detective Sgt. Luis Espinoza, Detective Alex Johnson, Deputy Sergio Ochoa and Lt. Shannon Barney were also involved. None of them were able to determine what happened to my dad. My dad’s case should have been a priority because he needed his medication (lithium).

Note: On July 20, 2006 Detective Crabb sent Lisa an email asking her to call him about her dad’s case. Investigators described Denoyer as a person of interest in the Cavanaugh and Neily disappearances. On August 7, 2006, three months after the missing person report was filed, Crabb emailed to Lisa “I am not going to make any attempts at contacting the property owner, James Denoyer. From past experiences with him, I know he will not cooperate the least bit.” A year later Crabb responded to Lisa’s request to obtain a copy of the police report by email: “It is the policy of the Sheriff’s Department not to release any reports from an open active investigation. I will be unable to fax the reports to you.” Lisa said she obtained the report when she reminded him of the Freedom of Information Act. 

Q: After the horse abuse trial ended with a hung jury, you reached out to the District Attorney, Meredith Lintott when you heard that she had decided not to retry the case.

A: On September 1, 2008 I sent an email to Meredith Lintott to complain about the performance of Katherine Houston and questioning Lintott’s decision not to retry the case, as I’d read in the Ukiah Daily Journal. I pointed out that my brother Ryan had sent a notarized statement to Ms. Houston in March 2008, containing firsthand knowledge of specific details that could be used in a retrial. He was not a lost witness. I wanted to know why he wasn’t called as a witness in the first trial. 

Note: Here is an excerpt from Lisa’s email to DA Lintott:

“What upset me most is the following paragraph [from the news article], which is not true

According to DA’s reports, the deal was reached after the District Attorney’s office decided that a retrial of Denoyer would be no more successful than the first because witnesses had been lost and no new evidence had come to light.”

Even David Neily’s ex-wife, Betty Shapiro, sent a letter to Ms. Houston in February 2008, criticizing her handling of the first trial and offering advice for how to handle the retrial. On March 1, 2008, Betty wrote to the California Department of Justice, which replied on March 10, telling her to contact local law enforcement. The family contacted the DOJ in the first place because they felt local law enforcement had not helped them.

Q: When you realized there would be no retrial, what then?

A: On October 4, 2008 I sent a request to the Mendocino County Grand Jury, asking them to investigate the ineptitude of the District Attorney’s office in mishandling the horse abuse trial. 

Note: Here are portions of Lisa’s request: 

“Several citizens called into Houston’s office to express their opinions several times that my brother Ryan should be called to testify… No reply or explanation was ever sent or said.”

Lisa also questioned why the missing person’s case has been shuffled through the hands of so many detectives. 

“We have learned the hard way how the short-staffed Mendocino County Sheriff’s Office has a high turnover rate because of low pay. This is pretty much the excuse we have been given ever since our dad became missing in April of 2006.

There are no words to express the overwhelming frustration and sadness we all feel at the Denoyer horse abuse case and my dad’s case. I feel that the longer this goes on, the more difficult it will be to ever find any answers, or my father.

If someone had read Ryan’s statement, Denoyer would not have gotten away with it.

The Neily family wants justice and closure. We ask for an investigation of the alleged misconduct of the authorities listed above in the Denoyer horse abuse case. Because this case is connected to the missing persons cases of David V. Neily, my dad, and Denoyer’s uncle, JC Cavanaugh.”

The Grand Jury foreman responded on November 10, 2008:

“The Mendocino County Civil Grand Jury has no jurisdiction to consider complaints about the Courts or criminal matters. As such we cannot consider your complaint…”

Years later, after filling out online petitions, Lisa received this response on July 26, 2013 from the Constituent Affairs Office of Governor Jerry Brown: “The decision making authority for the matter you describe rests entirely with the Mendocino County Board of Supervisors and the Mendocino County Grand Jury. Governor Brown values your perspective… We encourage you to continue working with your local representatives to see that your concerns are addressed.”

Lisa emailed Deputy Lorenzo on April 9, 2013, asking for updates. She asked whether they had ever interviewed the neighbor Thad, who reported hearing gunshots at the time her father disappeared. 

Lisa contacted the Sheriff’s Department in 2020, asking them to look into the online comments to the Where Are They Jimmy article and the Websleuths.com Forum. There were quite a few specific allegations made by online commenters that could have been followed up by investigators. She also asked that Denoyer and his girlfriend Rebecca Warda be interviewed again by law enforcement.

Q: When your dad’s remains were found in May 2020, how did you find out?

A: Not until a year later, after his remains were identified in November 2021. Which I question. They had dental records and DNA from Ryan and me. Why did it take over a year to ID him? The Mendocino County Sheriff’s Department never asked Ryan or me for DNA. We provided it voluntarily in 2008 in Colorado and it was entered in the CODIS system, an FBI database. My understanding is that standard protocol for missing persons cases is to ask for DNA from the family 30 days after the report is filed.

Q: Did the Sheriff’s office communicate with you about the discovery of the remains?

A: They called Scott, then he called Brad (eldest). Scott (second eldest) called me when I was working as substitute teacher. Scott could not answer my questions. So I ended the call. And had to end my substitute job that day and go home and call the Sheriffs. It was one of the worst days of my life.

Q: Regarding the Sheriff’s Press Release, dated November 13, 2021. It states that your father’s remains were found near the 15000 block of Branscomb Road. That’s near the intersection of Wilderness Lodge Road. It is more than 10 miles from Howard Creek Road in Westport, yet the press release says 3.5 miles. It also says your father disappeared from Albion, not Westport. You said you requested to review it prior to it being released to the public. Who did you talk to? 

A: I spoke to Detective Sgt. Luis M. Espinoza. I asked to read a draft before it was released, but was not given that opportunity. The press release was sent to the media with errors that were never corrected. By leaving the incorrect mileage amount in the press release (3.5 miles v. the actual 10-mile distance) from Westport to the place where his remains were discovered, it could make people believe the theory that he walked off and got disoriented. No, his remains were found over 10 miles away and there is no way he would have walked that far without his dog, Justice. 

Q: The Sheriff’s office was contacted on May 7, 2020 by a private forester who said his employee found what was believed to be human remains. In the same document it says the Sheriff’s office located “partial human remains.” The remains were sent first to James Wood, forensic dentist [and current California Assemblman], then a sample was sent to California Department of Justice DNA laboratory, then the remains were sent to Chico State University’s Human Identification Laboratory. Did you speak to anyone who participated in the identification process? 

A: I communicated with Jim Wood via Messenger to try and get information because the Sheriff’s office was not answering my questions. Wood texted back that he only performed the specific task for the Sheriff’s Department and is not involved in communications with next-of-kin. He suggested I hire a private attorney.

Q: The press release says no evidence of trauma was identified or observed. Yet there were only partial remains. Who knows what kind of trauma may have been on the remains that weren’t located? 

A: Yes, how can they say no evidence of trauma in the press release?

Q: It says your father was reported missing on July 24, 2006, but it was actually earlier that he was reported missing. 

A: The newspaper found in his vehicle was dated in April 2006. Ryan went to the ranch to look for our dad, prior to filing a missing person report. He filed the missing person report in May 2006. He found my dad’s dog and vehicles. Ron Baumeister told him my dad left the property. Dad would never have left his dog behind. Why didn’t the Sheriffs interview the neighbors? I asked them to, but was told they needed first and last name of parties to interview. Why couldn’t they knock on neighbors’ doors without me providing the complete names? Also, there were reports of gunshots late at night around the time my father went missing. Did the Sheriffs ever follow up on that? I want to subpoena the case files. We haven’t had any celebration of life, because I want the ashes tested.

Q: What sort of tests do you think should be performed on your dad’s ashes?

A: DNA, then paternity. There is a lab in Colorado where I can send them.

Q: So you question whether these are actually your father’s remains? Why?

A: Because I don’t trust the process so far and I don’t trust that the Sheriff’s Department investigation was accurate. 

Thank you, Lisa.

BLACK BART IN MENDO

Debra Keipp:

I was reading poet, Black Bart's Wiki page, and up came Point Arena! He spent some time in Mendocino County!

Boles, like many of his contemporaries, read dime novel–style serial adventure stories which appeared in local newspapers. In the early 1870s, the Sacramento Union ran a story called The Case of Summerfield by Caxton (a pseudonym of William Henry Rhodes). In the story, the villain dressed in black and had long unruly black hair, a large black beard, and wild grey eyes. The villain, named Black Bart, robbed Wells Fargo stagecoaches and brought great fear to those who were unlucky enough to cross him. Boles may have read the Sacramento Union story. He told a Wells Fargo detective that the name popped into his head when he was writing the first poem, and he used it.

Boles left only two authenticated verses. The first was at the scene of the August 3, 1877, holdup of a stage traveling from Point Arena to Duncans Mills, California:

I've labored long and hard for bread,

For honor, and for riches,

But on my corns too long you've tread,

You fine-haired sons of bitches.

— Black Bart, 1877

The second verse was left at the site of his July 25, 1878, holdup of a stage traveling from Quincy to Oroville, California:

Here I lay me down to sleep

To wait the coming morrow,

Perhaps success, perhaps defeat,

And everlasting sorrow.

Let come what will, I'll try it on,

My condition can't be worse;

And if there's money in that box

'Tis munny in my purse.

— Black Bart

SORDID, MORE OF THE TWO-FEATHERS BACK STORY

Updated Press Release 08-05-2022 @ 4:00 PM:

On Tuesday, August 2, 2022 at 2:05 AM Mendocino County Sheriff’s Office Deputies were dispatched to a possible domestic violence incident occurring in the 1700 block of North State Street in Ukiah.

Upon arrival, Deputies located Sally Arellano and Edward “Two Feathers” Steele standing in the parking lot of a closed business.

During a subsequent contact, Deputies developed information which led to the arrest of Arellano for a misdemeanor charge of domestic violence battery.

At the time of her arrest, Arellano stated her children were at a motel approximately half a mile away while being cared for by a babysitter. The children were not present during the domestic violence incident and were not with her at the time of her arrest.

Deputies learned Arellano and Steele had been engaged in a romantic dating relationship for the past several months.

Sally was subsequently booked into the Mendocino County Jail and was later released on bail on Wednesday, August 3, 2022 at approximately 5:00 AM.

Sally was able to make a telephone call prior to and after being booked into the Mendocino County Jail.

Ongoing investigations into this incident developed information that Steele had assumed care of the children from the babysitter after Arellano’s arrest.

During the morning of Wednesday, August 3, 2022 Steele left the children unattended near the railroad tracks near the 300 block of Brush Street in Ukiah. Thereafter, the one-year-old child was found deceased and the two-year-old child was found with a life-threatening medical emergency.

On Thursday, August 4, 2022 at 12:25 PM Hopland Tribal members contacted the Sheriff's Office and reported a sighting of Steele on the Hopland Rancheria.

Sheriff's Deputies responded to the Hopland Rancheria and located Steele shortly thereafter. Steele was detained and investigators were notified.

Subsequent investigations lead to Steele being booked into the Mendocino County Jail on charges of murder and violation of PRCS (Post Release Community Supervision). Steele is currently being held on a No Bail status.

The Sheriff's Office would like to thank the public, specifically Hopland Tribal members, for their assistance in helping locate Steele.

SHACKMAN CONVICTED

A Mendocino County Superior Court jury returned to the courtroom after thirty minutes of deliberations to announce it had found the trial defendant guilty as charged.

Defendant Sydney Christine Shackman, age 54, of Ukiah was found guilty of misdemeanor driving a motor vehicle under the influence of alcohol, misdemeanor driving a motor vehicle with a blood alcohol .08 or greater, and failure to provide proof of motor vehicle insurance, an infraction.

When originally contacted by the CHP, the defendant admitted to being the driver of the motor vehicle that, she claimed, had slid off the roadway and down an embankment on South State Street near Norgard Lane. She blew a blood alcohol result of .11/.10 during that January 2021 under the influence driving investigation.

After the jury was excused, the defendant also plead guilty in a separate case to misdemeanor failing to appear in court after signing a promise to appear.

The law enforcement agencies that developed the evidence underlying Tuesday’s DUI convictions were the California Highway Patrol and the California Department of Justice crime laboratory in Eureka.

The prosecutor who presented the People’s evidence to the jury was Deputy District Attorney Carlo Sosa.

Mendocino County Superior Court Judge Victoria Shanahan presided over the one-day trial that spanned two court days.

(DA Presser)

CATCH OF THE DAY, August 5, 2022

DUSTIN ALLEN, Ukiah. Domestic battery, disorderly conduct-alcohol.

FELIPE AMBROSIO-ENRIQUEZ, Woodburn, Oregon/Ukiah. DUI, probation revocation.

ROBERT CUDDY, Hopland. DUI.

ROCKY DUMAN, Ukiah. Stolen property, controlled substance, getting credit using another’s ID, suspended license for DUI/chem test refusal.

OMAR GONZALEZ, Covelo. DUI.

CHRISTOPHER LINTON, Ukiah. Probation revocation.

ERNEST SALO, Fort Bragg. Controlled substance for sale, disorderly conduct-alcohol.

KATTIE SANCHEZ, Ukiah. Ammo possession by prohibited person, paraphernalia.

EDWARD STEELE, Ukiah. Murder, county parole violation.

RUSTI VASSAR, Ukiah. Controlled substance, paraphernalia.

DELSEN WALL, Ukiah. Criminal threats.

DDT OCEAN DUMPING OFF L.A. COAST Even Worse Than Expected

After an exhaustive historical investigation into the barrels of DDT waste reportedly dumped decades ago near Catalina Island, federal regulators concluded that the toxic pollution in the deep ocean could be far worse — and far more sweeping — than what scientists anticipated. In internal memos made public recently, officials from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency determined that acid waste from the nation’s largest manufacturer of DDT — a pesticide so powerful it poisoned birds and fish — had not been contained in hundreds of thousands of sealed barrels. Most of the waste, according to newly unearthed information, had been poured directly into the ocean from massive tank barges.…

latimes.com/environment/story/2022-08-04/ddt-ocean-dumping-in-l-a-even-worse-than-expected

DON'T MISS CRAIG'S RATTA YATTA

UKRAINE, FRIDAY, AUGUST 5

Three more ships laden with grain departed from Ukraine on Friday under a UN-brokered deal aimed at easing the global food crisis, according to Ukrainian officials.

Russia's foreign minister said Moscow is ready to discuss a prisoner swap with the US. It comes after a Russian court sentenced WNBA star Brittney Griner to nine years in jail amid concerns she has been used as a political pawn in the country's war on Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said an Amnesty report that claimed his country's forces have at times used tactics which endanger civilians tries to "shift the responsibility" away from Russia.

MOST OF THE “FACT-CHECKING” ORGANIZATIONS Facebook Uses In Ukraine Are Directly Funded By Washington

by Alan Macleod

Most of the fact-checking organizations Facebook has partnered with to monitor and regulate information about Ukraine are directly funded by the U.S. government, either through the U.S. Embassy or via the notorious National Endowment for Democracy (NED).

In light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, an information war as bitter as the ground fighting has erupted, and Meta (Facebook’s official name) announced it had partnered with nine organizations to help it sort fact from fiction for Ukrainian, Russian and other Eastern European users. These nine organizations are: StopFake, VoxCheck, Fact Check Georgia, Demagog, Myth Detector, Lead Stories, Patikrinta 15min, Re:Baltica and Delfi.

“To reduce the spread of misinformation and provide more reliable information to users, we partner with independent third-party fact-checkers globally,” the Silicon Valley giant wrote, adding, “Facebook’s independent third-party fact-checkers are all certified by the International Fact-Checking Network (IFCN). The IFCN, a subsidiary of the journalism research organization Poynter Institute, is dedicated to bringing together fact-checkers worldwide.”

The problem with this? At least five of the nine organizations are directly in the pay of the United States government, a major belligerent in the conflict. The Poynter Institute is also funded by the NED. Furthermore, many of the other fact-checking organizations also have deep connections with other NATO powers, including direct funding.…

mintpressnews.com/facebook-fact-checking-organizations-ukraine-funded-washington/281618/

A GLANCE AHEAD

by James Kunstler

What’s ahead — like a few months down the road? Hysteria and chaos, if the “Joe Biden” regime can help it… and they’re helping it all they can. Twice vaxxed, twice boosted, and twice recent Covid-19 patient Dr. Anthony Fauci warned this week that the unvaxxed would “get into trouble” as the seasons turn this year. The part he left out is: the unvaxxed will be in trouble trying to keep up with helping their sick and dying vaccinated relatives whose immune systems have been damaged by their multiple vaxxes.

The boldness of Dr. Fauci’s lying is really something to behold. Who in the entire HHS-NIH-CDC bureaucracy has failed to notice that the mRNA “vaccines” have no efficacy whatever against Covid-19? The vaccinated are by far those still getting sick and increasingly disabled from the disease and even more from the vaxxes themselves. The emperor’s new clothes hang in shreds. Rumor is that many upper-level employees in these public health agencies are increasingly freaked out by their now-obvious complicity in a momentous crime. They know they will have to answer for allowing the mRNA fiasco to get this far, for going along to get along, and they’re preparing to mutiny to save their own asses. Wait for it.

The regime’s back-up plan is the comical monkeypox, transmitted to date mainly via all-male orgies. HHS Secretary Xavier Becerra declared a national monkeypox emergency this week, saying he’d “explore every option on the table” (except an official advisory against homosexual orgies). There is, of course, reasonable suspicion that monkeypox is but one device for shutting down the November mid-term election, or, more deviously, closing polling places and allowing only mail-in ballots — the easiest way to rig elections.

That will lead naturally to several states’ attorneys general seeking relief in the Supreme Court against the federal government’s unconstitutional takeover of the states’ duty to conduct their elections. The “Joe Biden” regime will lose that one, but not before royally pissing off at least half the adults in the land, leading to even greater-than-anticipated election losses for the Party of Chaos.

Meanwhile, the Party of Chaos is about to unleash its “Inflation Reduction Act,” which proposes to spend three quarters of a trillion dollars created from thin air into an economy already hyperventilating on three years of multi-trillion-dollar injections derived from no productive activity. At the same time, the act will raise taxes especially for low-end wage earners and small businesses, completing the regime’s destruction of the middle-class. The cherry-on-top is the provision to double the size of the Internal Revenue Service by hiring 87,000 new employees to harass ordinary American taxpayers. Is that what you voted for in 2020? I thought not.

None of that is going to work as intended. More likely, passage of the act will trigger destruction of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency, and a stampede out of dollar-denominated investments, which is to say, a very severe financial crisis. Credit will freeze, the distribution and sale of goods will cease, interest will stop being paid on virtually all outstanding debt, the bond market will implode, few will have anything identifiable as money, and there will be little in the way of everyday goods like food and gasoline to buy anyway.

You realize, of course, that this is a description of economic collapse. If things roll that way, there will be absolutely no trust left in the US government. It will be either ignored or opposed. And in places like my own New York, under the tyrannical and titanically incompetent accidental Governor Kathy Hochul, there will be no trust in state government either. Meaning, we’re on our own, community-by-community. This will be a very interesting experiment in the dynamics of emergence — the self-organizing properties of systems in chaos. I doubt that it will resolve in the direction of the globalists’ dreams of transhuman technocracy. Every macro trend now runs against centralization.

But the process could conceivably invite an attempted Chinese takeover of the USA, if not militarily, then in a way similar to America’s asset-stripping operations in the collapsed Soviet Union of the 1990s, a looting spree — as seen many other times in history when empires founder. Or else, the rest of the world will just kick back and witness the spectacle of our struggle as the lights of Western Civ flicker out. (Europe will be right in it with us, by the way.) The other nations of the world are tired of us trying to push them around, with increasingly evil intentions. They will enjoy watching our tribulations. They will be convinced we deserve it.

This is what comes from a culture of immersive and pervasive dishonesty. Satan is the father of lies and we have become Satanic, being and doing evil, most especially to ourselves, whether you believe in a literal Satan or not. So, do you think now that being transgressive is… fun? You’ll be changing what’s left of your mind about that soon. Along with the threat of literal starvation will also arise a terrible hunger for truth: How did this happen? How did we come to do this? Who was behind it? It won’t be hard to find out, once we’re motivated to look.

(Support Kunstler’s writing by visiting his Patreon Page.)

AMERICA, AUGUST 1-7, 2022

Landmark antitrust trial begins, the "cockroach" of tax breaks avoids death again, ultimate culture-war madness, arms sales to Saudi/UAE pals, plus Three Finance Headlines, chorizo mischief and more

by Matt Taibbi

The madness has begun early.

Public campaigning for the presidency and media coverage of same has rarely taken place in earnest before midterm elections. Veteran campaign journalists routinely took long vacations in Wifi-scarce areas (mountain ranges, distant island chains, backyard dungeons) in the fall season two years before a presidential vote, and candidate television ads almost never appeared until Election Day was at least 18 months out. In the 2012 election cycle, the first spot didn’t run until July 5, 2011, when then-Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty aired a TV ad in Iowa called “Pawlenty won” (actually, “Pawlenty dropped out” roughly a month later). The period before kickoff of campaign hostilities was known as the “invisible primary,” and voters were encouraged, as the New York Timesonce put it, to “enjoy the lull.”

There’s no more lull. In nearly unprecedented chaos — the most recent cycle that compares is 1968, when then-president Lyndon Johnson pulled out after a poor New Hampshire showing, leaving slates wide open in both parties — neither major party has a clue who will be its nominee in 2024. This has resulted in a flood of presidential campaign stories appearing at least 5-6 months earlier than usual, as politicians jockey for positioning with voters and donors alike. With putative frontrunner Donald Trump potentially facing indictment, trial-balloon articles hyping prospects of Republicans like Ron DeSantis, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo, Ted Cruz, Tom Cotton, Rick Scott, Tim Scott (twoScotts!), Liz Cheney, Larry Hogan, and Josh Hawley ran in June and July already. On the blue side, rumors that Joe Biden will not run again are pouring out of Washington and insiders almost daily propose replacements to Washington reporters, creating a list of profiles that already includes Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, Kamala Harris, Gavin Newsom (who lapped Pawlenty, already doing a TV ad buy in Florida), Gretchen Whitmer, Gina Raimondo, Phil Murphy, J.B. Pritzker, Andy Beshear, Sherrod Brown, Cory Booker, Stacey Abrams, Mitch Landrieu, Ro Khanna, and others. There will be no vacations for campaign reporters this fall. As one magazine writer put it this week, “It’s on.”

In other news:

Historic Anti-Trust Case Begins:The Biden administration last year sued to prevent publishing behemoth Penguin Random House’s $2.18 billion purchase of rival Simon and Schuster. On Monday, that trial began, and it promises to be a doozy, as many of the witnesses will be authors or publishing vets of varying degrees of wit and windbaggery. (Full disclosure: I’m a Random House author). If the deal were to go through, PRH would control roughly half the book market, which would be whittled from a “Big 5” to a “Big 4” group of companies (the others are HarperCollins, Hachette, and MacMillan). The trial marks new antitrust ground because it’s not merely about market concentration affecting prices, but also speech issues — control over the number, character, and diversity of published books. PRH argues it needs to get bigger to gain leverage with online titan Amazon, but the complaint claims Random House’s CEO “privately admitted” that he “never bought into that argument,” and one “goal” is to become an “exceptional partner” to Amazon. So far, Simon and Schuster CEO Jonathan Karp has had (for him) an unpleasantly comic witness experience, with the state introducing an email to author John Irving in which he wrote, “I’m pretty sure the Department of Justice wouldn’t allow Penguin Random House to acquire us. That’s assuming we still have a Department of Justice.” As one antitrust attorney put it to me, “This is about whether written speech will be totally controlled by a few executives, or just almost totally controlled.” Check this thread by @JohnHMaher for regular and biting trial updates. 

Al-Qaeda Chief Dead… Again. “Ayman al-Zawahiri, al-Qaeda’s leading operative, is dead,” Commentary magazine announced this week. “He was obliterated in an impressively surgical strike conducted by U.S. forces… little collateral damage… no unnecessary casualties.” The titular leader of al-Qaeda since the 2011 death of Osama bin Laden, al-Zawahiri is credited not only with helping plan 9/11, but the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Tanzania and Kenya, and what he called a “blessed raid” in London that killed 56. He really is dead, this time, but “impressively surgical” might be the wrong language to describe the end of an epic series of misfires that embarrassed the American drone program and infuriated Middle Eastern populations for nearly two decades. Al-Zawahiri, who had a $25 million bounty on his head, was reported dead at least twice before: after a CIA-led January 13, 2006 raid in the Pakistani village of Damadola, and an October 30, 2006 raid targeting a madrassain the city of Chengai. “In targeting Ayman al Zawahiri, the CIA killed 76 children and 29 adults,” the British human rights group Reprieve wrote, back in 2014. Their report, called “You Only Die Twice” claimed 1,147 had been killed in pursuit of 41 men, many of whom had been reported dead at least twice, and sometimes as many as six times. 

Biden Re-Arms Saudis, UAE.In May of 2019, Senate Democrats and a few Republicans voted for a resolution to “remove U.S. Armed Forces from hostilities in or affecting Yemen,” a ban including “in-flight fueling for non-U.S. aircraft.” Essentially, the vote was meant to shame then-president Donald Trump into withdrawing U.S. military support for the inexcusable-even-by-American-standards bombing of Yemeni civilians — especially children — by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, who were/are engaged in a proxy war with Iran there. A characteristically shame-resistant Trump vetoed the bill, appearing to make his signature extra loopy for emphasis. “Common strategic interests are best served with this clear commitment,” tweeted a cheerful UAE foreign minister Anwar Gargash at the time. Enter: Joe Biden. That month, just after announcing his candidacy for president, Biden spokesperson Andrew Bates told the Washington Post,“Vice President Biden believes it is past time to end U.S. support for the war in Yemen, and cancel the blank check the Trump administration has given Saudi Arabia for its conduct of that war.” Three years and one fist-bump later, Biden reversed course this week, approving more than $5 billion in weapons sales to the UAE and Saudi Arabia (a country he called a “pariah” as a candidate) “to counter Iran,” as the AP put it. The deal includes $3 billion in PATRIOT missiles, which will ostensibly be used to counter Iranian drones, continuing weapons-maker Raytheon’s recent run of great fortune — the firm also was commissioned for hundreds of millions in missiles for Ukraine earlier this year.

It’s Not a Recession, It’s Not a Recession, It’s Not a Recession.“Two quarters of GDP decline” in America has been a colloquial definition of recession for ages, which is why mass freakouts erupted when Biden administration officials reacted to a second straight GDP drop with a blue wall of Pinocchiod denials. Biden: “We’re not going to be in a recession.” National Economic Council Director Brian Deese: “Not consistent with a recession.” Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen: “Not an economy that’s in recession.” The truth is there is no hard-and-fast definition, as “recession” is technically determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, taking into account a range of data, well after the fact. Still, because journalists have used “two quarters of decline” for so long, the cultural version of a brick-and-Molotov cocktail fight broke out over what would be a small semantic dispute in any sane country. History may look back at it as the signature episode in the lunatic American culture war of the period. Left-leaning MSNBC could only refer to “the r word” on air, while the right-leaning New York Postplastered re·ces·sion in giant type on its famed tabloid cover. As mentioned last week, Wikipedia shut down unapproved edits to its “recession” page, followed by Facebook marking any assertion that we’re in a recession “partly false, moves that led one economist to declare America an “Orwellian hellscape.” None of it mattered, because the country mostly knows the economy sucks now no matter how you term it (with the exception of Nobel Prizewinning economist Paul Krugman, who called it “pretty favorable”), but the controversy still laid bare how impossible even rudimentary communication between political camps has become in a country with no mechanism for generating commonly accepted facts. 

AAUGH! Hated Tax Break Survives Again.In one of the longest-running political comedies in America, a hated tax break once again survived at the last minute after a huge coalition of politicians promised to kill it. The so-called “carried interest” tax loophole allows Private Equity execs (once called Leveraged Buyout artists) to pay most taxes as long-term capital gains, as opposed to ordinary income, a main route by which billionaires can pay lower tax rates than teachers or construction workers. Titans like Stephen Schwarzman of Blackstone, whose 2021 income was over $1 billion, including $941.6 million in Blackstone dividends likely taxed at the lower rate, can cut their tax bills roughly in half. Schwarzman, who once spent $5 million hiring Rod Stewart to play his birthday party, endeared himself to ordinary folk in 2010 when he said the potential end of the break was “like when Hitler invaded Poland.” Law professor Victor Fleischer in 2015 estimated that closing the loophole would generate $180 billion over ten years, and politicians have promised to do it at least a half-dozen times this generation. Barack Obama first proposed a change in 2009, did so again in 2010, 2011, and 2012, then Hillary Clinton promised to end it as a candidate in 2016 (despite being a major recipient of private equity donations). Donald Trump said executives were “getting away with murder” and as president did actually limit access to the exception, a little. Joe Biden also proposed doing away with it, and the loophole finally seemed all but dead this week. As recently as Wednesday, Private Equity Newsreported it was on the “chopping block” thanks to an insertion in the Inflation Reduction Act. But it was taken out at the last minute, reportedly as the cost of earning Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema’s support for the bill. Dennis Kelleher of Better Markets calls carried interest the “billionaires’ tax loophole cockroach” because it “can’t be killed,” while another finance reform activist I called referenced an iconic American cartoon sequence, saying, “There are always people who believe Charlie Brown will really kick the football this time.”

INTERNATIONAL NOTES: Escalating tensions between the United States and China have seen American companies and politicians scurrying to various corners, with some being more confrontational and others, like Apple, going the opposite route. The computer and phone titan asked suppliers to strictly enforce Chinese rules about parts or products from Taiwan, mandating that they must be labeled as made in either “Taiwan, China” or “Chinese Taipei.” 

★ Even close American allies like Germany had schizoid responses to the Chinese crisis. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock surprised/freaked out many when addressing a UN conference on nuclear weapons this week, saying, “We do not accept when international law is broken and a larger neighbor invades its smaller neighbor in violation of international law — and of course, that also applies to China.” In about ten seconds Germany’s ambassador to China, Patricia Flor, met with Chinese officials and emerged saying, “Frank debate today! During my meeting… I emphasized: Germany stands by the One China Policy.” 

★ At the beginning of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Americans would likely have elected Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky Emperor if given a chance. Now, times are shakier. After a visit to the States for one of our country’s highest celebrity rituals — a portrait by star photographer Annie Leibovitz for a fawning digital cover of Voguemagazine — Zelensky gave an amusing interview with British TV host Piers Morgan about how easy Americans have it. “COVID is nothing… Who is thinking about masks and COVID? Who is thinking about inflation? These things are secondary.” Right on cue, New York Timescolumnist Thomas Friedman reported dismay among the ranks of American officials. “There is deep mistrust between the White House and President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine,” Friedman wrote. “Considerably more than has been reported.” At least the Voguecover came out looking good.

PUBLIC RECORDS PULL OF THE WEEK

Federal Elections Commission report on expenditures of Trump-friendly PAC “Save America,” showing payments to a fashion designer known for clothing former First Lady Melania Trump:

STORY THAT’S PROBABLY FUNNY ONLY IF YOU GREW UP IN AMERICA: Doughnut shop burglar returns to scene of crime after forgetting keys, AgedCare101

In San Rafael, California, a man broke into the corporate office of Johnny’s Doughnuts, stole petty cash, then returned to the scene of the crime because he’d forgotten to steal the keys to a bakery van. He took the keys, but not the van. Company founder Craig Blum, as an American instinctively putting priorities in correct national order, was quoted: “It was an unfortunate incident, but we’re glad no doughnuts or team members were harmed.”

WTF PASSAGE OF THE WEEK: “MYSTERIOUS BABY-SNATCHING MONKEYS”

“People in a southwestern Japanese city have come under attack from monkeys that are trying to snatch babies, biting and clawing at flesh, and sneaking into nursery schools. The attacks — on 58 people since July 8 — are getting so bad Yamaguchi city hall hired a special unit to hunt the animals with tranquilizer guns… When confronted by a monkey, the instructions are: Do not look them in the eye, make yourself look as big as possible, such as by spreading open your coat, then back away as quietly as possible… No one seems to know why the attacks have occurred, and where exactly the troop of monkeys came from remains unclear.” Japanese city alarmed by biting, clawing, attacking monkeys,Associated Press

“OH, BY THE WAY” HEADLINES OF THE WEEK

Only 7% of Americans Have Confidence in Congress, Deseret News

Scientists baffled as Earth spins faster than usual, New York Post

A ‘Reversible’ Form of Death? Scientists Revive Cells in Dead Pigs’ Organs, New York Times

TWEET HISTORY SHOULD REMEMBER

French physicist posts close-up photo of Chorizo sausage, claims it’s a new picture of star Proxima Centauri, adds, “This level of detail… A new world is revealed day after day,” and is — forced to apologize:

STATISTIC OF THE WEEK 

Younger Americans are responding to inflation and the faltering economy with a record wave of high interest rate consumer borrowing, essentially putting the coming financial crisis on credit cards: 

“Gen Z, or young people 25 and under, saw their credit card balance increase by 30% in the second quarter, compared to a year ago, according to credit score company VantageScore. The rest of the population saw an 11% rise in their credit card balance, per the report.” 

Gen Z is racking up credit card debt almost three times as fast as everyone else as inflation sinks in,Business Insider

AND FINALLY, THREE FINANCE HEADLINES YOU MAY HAVE MISSED, by Eric Salzman

Regulators Vie for Authority Over Cryptocurrency Markets 

While the market value of cryptocurrencies has declined significantly, two big “investors” are poised to make a killing: financial regulators and members of Congress. This week, Senators Debbie Stabenow and John Boozman presented a plan to regulate crypto under the aegis of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), which didn’t sit well with Democrat and SEC Chairman Gary Gensler, who’s been pushing hard for the SEC to assume the role. Three weeks ago, his agency brought insider trading charges against an employee of the crypto exchange Coinbase, along with the employee’s brother and his friend, for trading ahead of public announcements. Meanwhile, Republican CFTC Commissioner Caroline Pham lashed out at Gensler, saying, “The SEC is not working together with the CFTC. They go out unilaterally to try and establish precedent.” It’s as if members of Congress, financial regulators, and lobbying firms got together to create a new rich vein of campaign dollars, and a new portal for regulators and congressional staffers to move seamlessly into fabulous private sector jobs, and worked backwards to invent crypto. American regulation 101: make a set of rules, then create an ecosystem devoted to getting around them. Click to read familiar names already cashing in:

Embattled Fed Official Lands on Feet; World Exhales in Relief. 

A few weeks ago, we told you about how former Federal Reserve Vice-Chair Richard Clarida was cleared of wrongdoing by the Fed’s Inspector General. We probably could have done a better job explaining exactly whathe was cleared of, since it was an impressively brazen maneuver. Clarida moved between $1-$5 million out of a bond fund into an equity fund a couple of days before the Fed launched its unprecedented pandemic support to financial markets, which looked bad enough, but that’s not all. Clarida said his move was a “pre-planned rebalancing,” which had a slim chance of not being a lie until it was disclosed that he had sold $1-$5million of the same stock fund three days before. In other words, his “out of bonds and into stocks” trade was really an “out of stocks and into bonds, then back into stocks again” trade — a rebalancing of a rebalancing! He appeared to reverse course when he knew stocks were probably going to skyrocket after the Fed announced its rescue package. It seemed news enough that he escaped consequence for these trades, but that wasn’t all: this week, it came out that PIMCO, the world’s biggest bond fund manager, had re-hired Clarida to serve as Managing Director and Global Economic Advisor, where he worked for 12 years before the brief vacation in public service. He joins a long line of financial regulators and officials who’ve been ensconced in scandals only to return to multi-million-dollar positions in their old private-sector firms.

Judges Gone Wild. 

If you’re not in a culture-war story, you’re usually not in the news, even if you deserve to be. This past month, federal judge Mary Geiger Lewis made a few headlines nationally when she issued a stay on her own original order on South Carolina’s fetal heartbeat law, allowing the tough anti-abortion measure to become the law of the land. However, Geiger and many other judges should have earned more headlines earlier. Last October, the Wall Street Journal found that between 2010 and 2018, 131 federal judges heard cases where either they or a member of their family owned the stock of one of the litigants. Geiger was one: she had Walmart stock while she was hearing a Walmart case. Another judge on a Pfizer case reported nearly a dozen buys and sells of Pfizer Inc. shares, while a third had two accounts that bought Medtronic PLC stock as the judge was ruling on litigation involving the firm. Moreover, the Journal found that 66 judges were actively trading the stocks of the litigants while they were presiding over their cases! Arthur Hellman, a law professor at the University of Pittsburgh, was quoted saying, this “can happen only if the judge is recklessly indifferent to the conflict-of-interest rules in the statute and the Cannons of Ethics.” Some judges told the Journal that either they didn’t know that they actually owned the stocks because they don’t look at statements, or they didn’t update their recusal lists, an answer that surely wouldn’t fly if a robe-less suspect offered it to investigators.